A Flexible Regression Modeling Approach Applied to Observational Laboratory Virological Data Suggests That SARS-CoV-2 Load in Upper Respiratory Tract Samples Changes with COVID-19 Epidemiology.
Kaplan–Meier curve
SARS-CoV-2 load
quantile regression
regression modeling approach
upper respiratory tract
vaccination
Journal
Viruses
ISSN: 1999-4915
Titre abrégé: Viruses
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101509722
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
23 09 2023
23 09 2023
Historique:
received:
04
07
2023
revised:
12
09
2023
accepted:
19
09
2023
medline:
30
10
2023
pubmed:
28
10
2023
entrez:
28
10
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
(1) Background. Exploring the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 load and clearance from the upper respiratory tract samples is important to improving COVID-19 control. Data were collected retrospectively from a laboratory dataset on SARS-CoV-2 load quantified in leftover nasal pharyngeal swabs (NPSs) collected from symptomatic/asymptomatic individuals who tested positive to SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection in the framework of testing activities for diagnostic/screening purpose during the 2020 and 2021 winter epidemic waves. (2) Methods. A Statistical approach (quantile regression and survival models for interval-censored data), novel for this kind of data, was applied. We included in the analysis SARS-CoV-2-positive adults >18 years old for whom at least two serial NPSs were collected. A total of 262 SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals and 784 NPSs were included: 193 (593 NPSs) during the 2020 winter wave (before COVID-19 vaccine introduction) and 69 (191 NPSs) during the 2021 winter wave (all COVID-19 vaccinated). We estimated the trend of the median value, as well as the 25th and 75th centiles of the viral load, from the index episode (i.e., first SARS-CoV-2-positive test) until the sixth week (2020 wave) and the third week (2021 wave). Interval censoring methods were used to evaluate the time to SARS-CoV-2 clearance (defined as Ct < 35). (3) Results. At the index episode, the median value of viral load in the 2021 winter wave was 6.25 log copies/mL (95% CI: 5.50-6.70), and the median value in the 2020 winter wave was 5.42 log copies/mL (95% CI: 4.95-5.90). In contrast, 14 days after the index episode, the median value of viral load was 3.40 log copies/mL (95% CI: 3.26-3.54) for individuals during the 2020 winter wave and 2.93 Log copies/mL (95% CI: 2.80-3.19) for those of the 2021 winter wave. A significant difference in viral load shapes was observed among age classes (
Identifiants
pubmed: 37896765
pii: v15101988
doi: 10.3390/v15101988
pmc: PMC10610845
pii:
doi:
Substances chimiques
COVID-19 Vaccines
0
RNA, Viral
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
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