Adaptation of sea turtles to climate warming: Will phenological responses be sufficient to counteract changes in reproductive output?
adaptive response
climate change
ectotherms
marine turtles
phenology
reproductive output
sea turtles
Journal
Global change biology
ISSN: 1365-2486
Titre abrégé: Glob Chang Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9888746
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
31 Oct 2023
31 Oct 2023
Historique:
revised:
02
10
2023
received:
20
01
2023
accepted:
03
10
2023
medline:
31
10
2023
pubmed:
31
10
2023
entrez:
31
10
2023
Statut:
aheadofprint
Résumé
Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change since their reproductive output is influenced by incubating temperatures, with warmer temperatures causing lower hatching success and increased feminization of embryos. Their ability to cope with projected increases in ambient temperatures will depend on their capacity to adapt to shifts in climatic regimes. Here, we assessed the extent to which phenological shifts could mitigate impacts from increases in ambient temperatures (from 1.5 to 3°C in air temperatures and from 1.4 to 2.3°C in sea surface temperatures by 2100 at our sites) on four species of sea turtles, under a "middle of the road" scenario (SSP2-4.5). Sand temperatures at sea turtle nesting sites are projected to increase from 0.58 to 4.17°C by 2100 and expected shifts in nesting of 26-43 days earlier will not be sufficient to maintain current incubation temperatures at 7 (29%) of our sites, hatching success rates at 10 (42%) of our sites, with current trends in hatchling sex ratio being able to be maintained at half of the sites. We also calculated the phenological shifts that would be required (both backward for an earlier shift in nesting and forward for a later shift) to keep up with present-day incubation temperatures, hatching success rates, and sex ratios. The required shifts backward in nesting for incubation temperatures ranged from -20 to -191 days, whereas the required shifts forward ranged from +54 to +180 days. However, for half of the sites, no matter the shift the median incubation temperature will always be warmer than the 75th percentile of current ranges. Given that phenological shifts will not be able to ameliorate predicted changes in temperature, hatching success and sex ratio at most sites, turtles may need to use other adaptive responses and/or there is the need to enhance sea turtle resilience to climate warming.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Subventions
Organisme : 4Ocean
Organisme : Alianza World Wildlife Fund-Fundación Carlos Slim
Organisme : American Geophysical Union- Sharing Science Award
Organisme : Ashwanden Family Fund
Organisme : AWC Foundation
Organisme : Casa Tortuga
Organisme : Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados-Mérida
Organisme : Coastal Wildlife Club
Organisme : Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad, Gobierno de México
Organisme : Department of Biological Sciences at Florida Atlantic University
Organisme : Disney Worldwide Conservation Fund
Organisme : El Colegio de la Frontera Sur
Organisme : Fomento Social Banamex
Organisme : FONATUR
Organisme : Fondo Mexicano para la Conservación de la Naturaleza
Organisme : IdeaWild
Organisme : Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología-UNAM
Organisme : KfW Entwicklungsbank
Organisme : National Fish and Wildlife Foundation
Organisme : National Save the Sea Turtle Foundation
Organisme : National Science Foundation
ID : 1904818
Organisme : Nature Conservancy
Organisme : Nelligan Sea Turtle Fund
Organisme : Programa de Especies en Riesgo-Comisión Nacional de Áreas Naturales Protegidas (CONANP)
Organisme : Programa de Monitoreo Biológico-CONANP
Organisme : QatarEnergy
Organisme : SAC-TUN, Industria Salinera de Yucatán
Organisme : Save Our Seas Foundation
Organisme : Sea Turtle Inc
Organisme : SEE Turtles
Organisme : Telefónica Movistar
Organisme : Andrews Family
Organisme : U.S. EPA STAR Program GAD
ID : R82-9094
Organisme : U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
Organisme : UNAM PAPIIT/DGAPA
ID : IN212119
Organisme : UNAM PAPIIT/DGAPA
ID : IN209520
Organisme : UNAM PAPIIT/DGAPA
ID : IN201218
Organisme : UNAM PAPIIT/DGAPA
ID : IN210116
Organisme : United States Agency for International Development
Organisme : Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán
Organisme : Wild Earth Allies
Informations de copyright
© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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