A scoping review & taxonomy of epidemiological-macroeconomic models of COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic placed significant strain on many health systems and economies. Mitigation policies decreased health impacts but had major macroeconomic impact. This paper reviews models combining epidemiological and macroeconomic projections to enable policymakers to consider both macroeconomic and health objectives. A scoping review of epidemiological-macroeconomic models of COVID-19 was conducted, covering preprints, working papers and journal publications. We assessed model methodologies, scope, and application to empirical data. We found 80 papers modelling both the epidemiological and macroeconomic outcomes of COVID-19. Model scope is often limited to the impact of lockdown on health and total gross domestic product or aggregate consumption, and to high income countries. Just 14% of models assess disparities or poverty. Most models fall under four categories: compartmental-utility-maximization models, epidemiological models with stylized macroeconomic projections, epidemiological models linked to computable general equilibrium or input-output models, and epi-econ-ABMs. We propose a taxonomy comparing these approaches to guide future model development. The epidemiological-macroeconomic models of COVID-19 identified have varying complexity and meet different modelling needs. Priorities for future modelling include increasing developing country applications, assessing disparities and poverty, and estimating of long-run impacts. This may require better integration between epidemiologists and economists.

Informations de copyright

Copyright © 2023 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.