Predictive model for estimating the risk of high-altitude pulmonary edema: a single-centre retrospective outcome-reporting study.

To develop the first prediction model based on the common clinical symptoms of high-altitude pulmonary edema (HAPE), enabling early identification and an easy-to-execute self-risk prediction tool. A total of 614 patients who consulted People's Hospital of Tibet Autonomous Region between January 2014 and April 2022 were enrolled. Out of those, 508 patients (416 males and 92 females) were diagnosed with HAPE and 106 were patients without HAPE (33 females and 72 males). They were randomly distributed into training (n=431) and validation (n=182) groups. Univariate and multivariate analysis were used to screen predictors of HAPE selected from the 36 predictors; nomograms were established based on the results of multivariate analysis. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was developed to obtain the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the predictive model, and its predictive power was further evaluated by calibrating the curve, while the Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) was developed to evaluate the clinical applicability of the model, which was visualised by nomogram. All six predictors were significantly associated with the incidence of HAPE, and two models were classified according to whether the value of SpO The recommended prediction model (nomogram) could estimate the risk of HAPE with good precision, high discrimination and possible clinical applications for patients with HAPE. More importantly, it is an easy-to-execute scoring tool for individuals without medical professionals' support.

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Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Competing interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted without any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.