Training and external validation of pre-treatment FDG PET-CT-based models for outcome prediction in anal squamous cell carcinoma.
Anal canal
Event-free survival
Positron emission tomography computed tomography
Squamous cell carcinoma
Journal
European radiology
ISSN: 1432-1084
Titre abrégé: Eur Radiol
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 9114774
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
04 Nov 2023
04 Nov 2023
Historique:
received:
27
06
2023
accepted:
24
08
2023
revised:
20
08
2023
medline:
4
11
2023
pubmed:
4
11
2023
entrez:
4
11
2023
Statut:
aheadofprint
Résumé
The incidence of anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC) is increasing worldwide, with a significant proportion of patients treated with curative intent having recurrence. The ability to accurately predict progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) would allow for development of personalised treatment strategies. The aim of the study was to train and external test radiomic/clinical feature derived time-to-event prediction models. Consecutive patients with ASCC treated with curative intent at two large tertiary referral centres with baseline FDG PET-CT were included. Radiomic feature extraction was performed using LIFEx software on the pre-treatment PET-CT. Two distinct predictive models for PFS and OS were trained and tuned at each of the centres, with the best performing models externally tested on the other centres' patient cohort. A total of 187 patients were included from centre 1 (mean age 61.6 ± 11.5 years, median follow up 30 months, PFS events = 57/187, OS events = 46/187) and 257 patients were included from centre 2 (mean age 62.6 ± 12.3 years, median follow up 35 months, PFS events = 70/257, OS events = 54/257). The best performing model for PFS and OS was achieved using a Cox regression model based on age and metabolic tumour volume (MTV) with a training c-index of 0.7 and an external testing c-index of 0.7 (standard error = 0.4). A combination of patient age and MTV has been demonstrated using external validation to have the potential to predict OS and PFS in ASCC patients. A Cox regression model using patients' age and metabolic tumour volume showed good predictive potential for progression-free survival in external testing. The benefits of a previous radiomics model published by our group could not be confirmed on external testing. • A predictive model based on patient age and metabolic tumour volume showed potential to predict overall survival and progression-free survival and was validated on an external test cohort. • The methodology used to create a predictive model from age and metabolic tumour volume was repeatable using external cohort data. • The predictive ability of positron emission tomography-computed tomography-derived radiomic features diminished when the influence of metabolic tumour volume was accounted for.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37924344
doi: 10.1007/s00330-023-10340-9
pii: 10.1007/s00330-023-10340-9
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Subventions
Organisme : Cancer Research UK
ID : 28832
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Cancer Research UK
ID : RCCCTF-OCT22/100002
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
ID : 104688
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Cancer Research UK
ID : C19942/A28832
Pays : United Kingdom
Informations de copyright
© 2023. The Author(s).
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