Quantifying cardiovascular disease risk and heart age predictions for men in the prison environment.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and associated risk factors within the prison population often present at a younger age in this cohort. Given CVD is largely preventable, it warrants investigation to fully quantify this risk. This study explored the relative predicted 10-year CVD risk and examined the calculated heart age in a representative sample of male individuals aged 25-84 years within the prison environment. This was a cross-sectional study. Data were collected on 299 men who underwent a cardiometabolic risk assessment in HMP Parc, Bridgend. The QRISK2 algorithm was used to calculate 10-year CVD risk, relative risk (to general population) and the predicted heart age of an individual. Between-group differences (prison population vs general community) in cardiovascular risk predictions (10-year CVD risk and heart age) were assessed. We observed that at all age groups, the relative risk of predicted 10-year CVD scores in the prison population was double that of the community risk (2.1 ± 0.6), and this was most apparent in the oldest age group (≥50 years: 17.0% compared to 8.8%; P < 0.001). Overall, the heart age of the sample was 7.5 (6.7-8.2) years higher than their own chronological age, and this difference increased to above 9 years in those aged ≥40 years. This study provides quantifiable evidence to the elevated CVD risk in prison. Heart age predictions were almost a decade higher in those aged ≥40 years. Lowering the screening age for CVD by around 5 years in the prison population should be considered.

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