The pandemic effect on GHG emission variation at the sub-national level and translation into policy opportunities.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventories are commonly compiled at country level to monitor national progress towards nationally or internationally agreed targets. While they can support national climate change mitigation strategies, accounting for the intra-national heterogeneity of a country can draw different conclusions directly linked to the socio-economic and environmental sub-national context. This means that more refined and accurate policies and mitigation strategies can be designed when supported by GHG inventories at sub-national scale. The differences between sub-national territorial emissive behavior can be revealed by subjecting different territories to the same stress factors. A complete GHG emissions inventory, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines, is compiled for three diverse administrative territories, in terms of scale, socio-economic contexts, and environmental conditions. By selecting three diverse sub-national contexts belonging to the same national territory - Italy - the analysis provides highly detailed information on the emissive status and behavior and delivers insights that national inventories fail to provide. The COVID-19 pandemic is considered as a stress factor; therefore, the reference years are 2019 and 2020 during which GHG emissions are detected. The study will test the capacity of sub-national GHG emission inventories, compiled by scaling the IPCC methodology to the sub-national level, to detect such differences through the lens of the pandemic. This allows obtaining detailed information and linking the pandemic effect to the GHG emissions of particular activities, which can inspire effective sub-national context-specific mitigation actions. Furthermore, we show that environmental and economic metrics are not as strictly coupled as they would appear at national level.

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Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.