The vulnerability of aging states: A survival analysis across premodern societies.
archaeology
civilizations
longevity
resilience
societies
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 1091-6490
Titre abrégé: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 7505876
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
28 Nov 2023
28 Nov 2023
Historique:
medline:
22
11
2023
pubmed:
20
11
2023
entrez:
20
11
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
How states and great powers rise and fall is an intriguing enigma of human history. Are there any patterns? Do polities become more vulnerable over time as they age? We analyze longevity in hundreds of premodern states using survival analysis to help provide initial insights into these questions. This approach is commonly used to study the risk of death in biological organisms or failure in mechanical systems. The results reveal that the risk of state termination increased steeply over approximately the first two centuries after formation and stabilized thereafter. This provides the first quantitative support for the hypothesis that the resilience of political states decreases over time. Potential mechanisms that could drive such declining resilience include environmental degradation, increasing complexity, growing inequality, and extractive institutions. While the cases are from premodern times, such dynamics and drivers of vulnerability may remain relevant today.
Identifiants
pubmed: 37983501
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2218834120
pmc: PMC10691336
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e2218834120Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.
Références
Science. 2012 Nov 9;338(6108):788-91
pubmed: 23139330
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012 Mar 6;109(10):3628-31
pubmed: 22371580
Nature. 2009 Sep 3;461(7260):53-9
pubmed: 19727193
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Aug 30;113(35):9751-6
pubmed: 27573833
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Jan 9;115(2):E144-E151
pubmed: 29269395
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Mar 27;115(13):3210-3218
pubmed: 29531084
Sci Rep. 2019 May 9;9(1):6850
pubmed: 31073131
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Dec 12;114(50):13154-13157
pubmed: 29183971
Am Antiq. 2016 Jan;81(1):74-96
pubmed: 33001060
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2015 Apr 19;370(1666):
pubmed: 25750242
Crit Care Med. 2016 Mar;44(3):601-6
pubmed: 26765499
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012 Mar 6;109(10):3632-9
pubmed: 22371579
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 May 4;118(18):
pubmed: 33911035
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2018 Nov 20;115(47):11883-11890
pubmed: 30373844
Science. 2003 Mar 14;299(5613):1731-5
pubmed: 12637744
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2013 Jan 8;110(2):443-7
pubmed: 23267083
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Dec 5;114(49):E10524-E10531
pubmed: 29158411
J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2017 Jul 01;72(7):991-996
pubmed: 28475664
BMC Geriatr. 2022 Apr 8;22(1):301
pubmed: 35395751
Science. 2012 Oct 19;338(6105):344-8
pubmed: 23087241
J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2019 Jun 18;74(7):1119-1126
pubmed: 30052796
J Am Geriatr Soc. 2019 Dec;67(12):2650-2657
pubmed: 31498881