Cross-population evaluation of cervical cancer risk prediction algorithms.
Cervical cancer prevention
External validation
Hidden Markov model
Matrix factorization
Neural network
Risk prediction
Journal
International journal of medical informatics
ISSN: 1872-8243
Titre abrégé: Int J Med Inform
Pays: Ireland
ID NLM: 9711057
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jan 2024
Jan 2024
Historique:
received:
29
09
2023
revised:
11
10
2023
accepted:
12
11
2023
pubmed:
29
11
2023
medline:
29
11
2023
entrez:
28
11
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Cervical cancer is a preventable disease, despite being one of the most common types of female cancers worldwide. Integrating existing programs for cervical cancer screening with personalized risk prediction algorithms can improve population-level cancer prevention by enabling more targeted screening and contrive preventive healthcare innovations. While algorithms developed for cervical cancer risk prediction have shown promising performance in internal validation on more homogeneous populations, their ability to generalize to external populations remains to be assessed. To address this gap, we perform a cross-population comparative study of personalized prediction algorithms for more personalized cervical cancer screening. Using data from the Norwegian and Estonian populations, the algorithms are validated on internal and external datasets to study their potential biases and limitations when applied to different populations. We evaluate the algorithms in predicting progression from low-grade precancerous cervical lesions, simulating a clinically relevant application of more personalized risk stratification. As expected, our numerical experiments show that algorithm performance varies depending on the population. However, some algorithms show strong generalization capacity across different data sources. Using Kaplan-Meier estimates, we demonstrate the strengths and limitations of the algorithms in detecting cancer progression over time by comparing to the trends observed from data. We assess their overall discrimination performance in personalized risk predictions by analyzing the accuracy and confidence in individual risk estimates. This study examines the effectiveness of personalized prediction algorithms across different populations. Our results demonstrate the potential for generalizing risk prediction algorithms to external populations. These findings highlight the importance of considering population diversity when developing risk prediction algorithms.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Cervical cancer is a preventable disease, despite being one of the most common types of female cancers worldwide. Integrating existing programs for cervical cancer screening with personalized risk prediction algorithms can improve population-level cancer prevention by enabling more targeted screening and contrive preventive healthcare innovations. While algorithms developed for cervical cancer risk prediction have shown promising performance in internal validation on more homogeneous populations, their ability to generalize to external populations remains to be assessed.
METHODS
METHODS
To address this gap, we perform a cross-population comparative study of personalized prediction algorithms for more personalized cervical cancer screening. Using data from the Norwegian and Estonian populations, the algorithms are validated on internal and external datasets to study their potential biases and limitations when applied to different populations. We evaluate the algorithms in predicting progression from low-grade precancerous cervical lesions, simulating a clinically relevant application of more personalized risk stratification.
RESULTS
RESULTS
As expected, our numerical experiments show that algorithm performance varies depending on the population. However, some algorithms show strong generalization capacity across different data sources. Using Kaplan-Meier estimates, we demonstrate the strengths and limitations of the algorithms in detecting cancer progression over time by comparing to the trends observed from data. We assess their overall discrimination performance in personalized risk predictions by analyzing the accuracy and confidence in individual risk estimates.
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
This study examines the effectiveness of personalized prediction algorithms across different populations. Our results demonstrate the potential for generalizing risk prediction algorithms to external populations. These findings highlight the importance of considering population diversity when developing risk prediction algorithms.
Identifiants
pubmed: 38016404
pii: S1386-5056(23)00315-5
doi: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2023.105297
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
105297Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no competing interests.