Marburg virus disease outbreaks, mathematical models, and disease parameters: a systematic review.

Journal

The Lancet. Infectious diseases
ISSN: 1474-4457
Titre abrégé: Lancet Infect Dis
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101130150

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
28 Nov 2023
Historique:
received: 05 07 2023
revised: 03 08 2023
accepted: 03 08 2023
medline: 2 12 2023
pubmed: 2 12 2023
entrez: 1 12 2023
Statut: aheadofprint

Résumé

The 2023 Marburg virus disease outbreaks in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania highlighted the importance of better understanding this lethal pathogen. We did a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of peer-reviewed articles reporting historical outbreaks, modelling studies, and epidemiological parameters focused on Marburg virus disease. We searched PubMed and Web of Science from database inception to March 31, 2023. Two reviewers evaluated all titles and abstracts with consensus-based decision making. To ensure agreement, 13 (31%) of 42 studies were double-extracted and a custom-designed quality assessment questionnaire was used for risk of bias assessment. We present detailed information on 478 reported cases and 385 deaths from Marburg virus disease. Analysis of historical outbreaks and seroprevalence estimates suggests the possibility of undetected Marburg virus disease outbreaks, asymptomatic transmission, or cross-reactivity with other pathogens, or a combination of these. Only one study presented a mathematical model of Marburg virus transmission. We estimate an unadjusted, pooled total random effect case fatality ratio of 61·9% (95% CI 38·8-80·6; I

Identifiants

DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00515-7 PMID: 38040006
pubmed: 38040006
pii: S1473-3099(23)00515-7
doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00515-7
pii:
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article Review

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Subventions

Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MR/R015600/1
Pays : United Kingdom

Investigateurs

Aaron Morris (A)
Alpha Forna (A)
Amy Dighe (A)
Anne Cori (A)
Arran Hamlet (A)
Ben Lambert (B)
Charlie Whittaker (C)
Christian Morgenstern (C)
Cyril Geismar (C)
Dariya Nikitin (D)
David Jorgensen (D)
Ed Knock (E)
Ettie Unwin (E)
Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg (G)
Hayley Thompson (H)
Isobel Routledge (I)
Janetta Skarp (J)
Joseph Hicks (J)
Keith Fraser (K)
Kelly Charniga (K)
Kelly McCain (K)
Lily Geidelberg (L)
Lorenzo Cattarino (L)
Mara Kont (M)
Marc Baguelin (M)
Natsuko Imai (N)
Nima Moghaddas (N)
Patrick Doohan (P)
Rebecca Nash (R)
Ruth McCabe (R)
Sabine van Elsland (S)
Sangeeta Bhatia (S)
Sreejith Radhakrishnan (S)
Zulma Cucunuba Perez (Z)
Jack Wardle (J)

Informations de copyright

Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Declaration of interests AC reports payment from Pfizer for teaching mathematical modelling of infectious diseases. PD reports payment from WHO for consulting on integrated modelling. All other authors declare no competing interests. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), UK Health Security Agency, or the Department of Health and Social Care. NI is currently employed by the Wellcome Trust. However, the Wellcome Trust had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Auteurs

Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg (G)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Kelly McCain (K)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Ruth McCabe (R)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.

H Juliette T Unwin (HJT)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Patrick Doohan (P)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Rebecca K Nash (RK)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Joseph T Hicks (JT)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Kelly Charniga (K)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Cyril Geismar (C)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling and Health Economics, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Ben Lambert (B)

College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.

Dariya Nikitin (D)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Janetta Skarp (J)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Jack Wardle (J)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Mara Kont (M)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Sangeeta Bhatia (S)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling and Health Economics, Imperial College London, London, UK; Modelling and Economics Unit, UK Health Security Agency, London, UK.

Natsuko Imai (N)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Sabine van Elsland (S)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Anne Cori (A)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling and Health Economics, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Christian Morgenstern (C)

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. Electronic address: c.morgenstern@imperial.ac.uk.

Classifications MeSH