Modeling the impact of changing sexual behaviors with opposite-sex partners and STI testing among women and men ages 15-44 on STI diagnosis rates in the United States 2012-2019.
Agent-based modeling
Chlamydia
Gonorrhea
Simulation
Journal
Infectious Disease Modelling
ISSN: 2468-0427
Titre abrégé: Infect Dis Model
Pays: China
ID NLM: 101692406
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Dec 2023
Dec 2023
Historique:
received:
31
08
2023
revised:
16
10
2023
accepted:
27
10
2023
medline:
11
12
2023
pubmed:
11
12
2023
entrez:
11
12
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
To estimate the potential contributions of reported changes in frequency of penile-vaginal sex (PVS), condom use and STI screening to changes in gonorrhea and chlamydial diagnoses from 2012 to 2019. An agent-based model of the heterosexual population in the U.S. simulated the STI epidemics. Baseline was calibrated to 2012 diagnosis rates, testing, condom use, and frequency of PVS. Counterfactuals used behaviors from the 2017-2019 NSFG, and we evaluated changes in diagnosis and incidence rates in 2019. Higher testing rates increased gonorrhea and chlamydia diagnosis by 14% and 13%, respectively, but did not reduce incidence. Declining frequency of PVS reduced the diagnosis rate for gonorrhea and chlamydia 6% and 3% respectively while reducing incidence by 10% and 9% respectively. Declining condom use had negligible impact on diagnosis and incidence. Understanding how changing behavior drives STI incidence is essential to addressing the growing epidemics. Changes in testing and frequency of PVS likely contributed to some, but not all, of the changes in diagnoses. More research is needed to understand the context within which changing sexual behavior and testing are occurring.
Identifiants
pubmed: 38074076
doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.005
pii: S2468-0427(23)00090-8
pmc: PMC10709507
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
1169-1176Informations de copyright
© 2023 The Authors.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
Références
J Infect Dis. 2021 Jan 4;223(1):72-82
pubmed: 32882043
JAMA. 2019 Feb 5;321(5):451-452
pubmed: 30629090
Sex Transm Infect. 2022 Feb;98(1):50-52
pubmed: 33172916
J Womens Health (Larchmt). 2017 Nov;26(11):1150-1160
pubmed: 28557545
MMWR Recomm Rep. 2021 Jul 23;70(4):1-187
pubmed: 34292926
PLoS Med. 2019 Jan 18;16(1):e1002729
pubmed: 30657770
J Stat Softw. 2018 Apr;84:
pubmed: 29731699
J Sex Med. 2010 Oct;7 Suppl 5:255-65
pubmed: 21029383
Sex Transm Dis. 2018 May;45(5):287-293
pubmed: 29465688
JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2018 Jun 29;4(2):e58
pubmed: 29959112
JAMA. 2021 Sep 14;326(10):949-956
pubmed: 34519796
Sex Transm Dis. 2018 Sep;45(9):588-593
pubmed: 29485543
Clin Infect Dis. 2009 Dec 15;49(12):1798-800
pubmed: 19911969
J Stat Softw. 2008;24(1):1548-7660
pubmed: 18618019
Arch Sex Behav. 2023 Feb;52(2):809-821
pubmed: 36472765
J Stat Softw. 2008 May 1;24(3):nihpa54860
pubmed: 19756229
Am J Public Health. 2018 Nov;108(S4):S284-S291
pubmed: 30383415
Sex Transm Infect. 2008 Oct;84 Suppl 2:ii4-11
pubmed: 18799491
J R Stat Soc Series B Stat Methodol. 2014 Jan 1;76(1):29-46
pubmed: 24443639
PLoS One. 2019 May 22;14(5):e0217315
pubmed: 31116802
Sex Transm Dis. 2021 Apr 1;48(4):215-221
pubmed: 33492093
MMWR Surveill Summ. 2018 Jun 15;67(8):1-114
pubmed: 29902162
BMC Public Health. 2023 Apr 20;23(1):716
pubmed: 37081482
J Infect Dis. 2016 Dec 15;214(12):1800-1807
pubmed: 27418048
J Adolesc Health. 2021 Mar;68(3):488-496
pubmed: 32798099
AIDS. 2020 Nov 15;34(14):2103-2113
pubmed: 32910062
Indian J Sex Transm Dis AIDS. 2015 Jan-Jun;36(1):3-8
pubmed: 26392647
Am J Public Health. 2008 Feb;98(2):221-30
pubmed: 18172144