Timely Detection of Infants at Risk of Intrapartum Acidosis and Hypoxic-Ischemic Encephalopathy Using Cardiotocography

This work aims to improve the intrapartum detection of fetuses with an increased risk of developing fetal acidosis or hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) using fetal heart rate (FHR) and uterine pressure (UP) signals. Our study population comprised 40,831 term births divided into 3 classes based on umbilical cord or early neonatal blood gas assessments: 374 with verified HIE, 3,047 with acidosis but no encephalopathy and 37,410 healthy babies with normal gases. We developed an intervention recommendation system based on a random forest classifier. The classifier was trained using classical and novel features extracted electronically from 20-minute epochs of FHR and UP. Then, using the predictions of the classifier on each epoch, we designed a decision rule to determine when to recommended intervention. Compared to the Caesarean rates in each study group, our system identified an additional 5.68% of babies who developed HIE (54.55% vs 60.23%, p < 0.01) with a specific alert threshold. Importantly, about 75% of these recommendations were made more than 200 minutes before birth. In the acidosis group, the system identified an additional 17.44% (37.15% vs 54.59%, p < 0.01) and about 2/3 of these recommendations were made more than 200 minutes before birth. Compared to the Caesarean rate in the healthy group, the associated false positive rate was increased by 1.07% (38.80% vs 39.87%, p<0.01).Clinical Relevance- This method recommended intervention in more babies affected by acidosis or HIE, than the intervention rate observed in practice and most often did so 200 minutes before delivery. This was early enough to expect that interventions would have clinical benefit and reduce the rate of HIE. Given the high burden associated with HIE, this would justify the marginal increase in the normal Cesarean rate.