Modeling the impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa.
COVID‐19
epidemiological models
low‐ and middle‐income countries
respiratory syncytial virus
Journal
Influenza and other respiratory viruses
ISSN: 1750-2659
Titre abrégé: Influenza Other Respir Viruses
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101304007
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Dec 2023
Dec 2023
Historique:
received:
12
06
2023
revised:
25
09
2023
accepted:
11
11
2023
medline:
13
12
2023
pubmed:
13
12
2023
entrez:
13
12
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The South African government employed various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Surveillance data from South Africa indicates reduced circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) throughout the 2020-2021 seasons. Here, we use a mechanistic transmission model to project the rebound of RSV in the two subsequent seasons. We fit an age-structured epidemiological model to hospitalization data from national RSV surveillance in South Africa, allowing for time-varying reduction in RSV transmission during periods of COVID-19 circulation. We apply the model to project the rebound of RSV in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. We projected an early and intense outbreak of RSV in April 2022, with an age shift to older infants (6-23 months old) experiencing a larger portion of severe disease burden than typical. In March 2022, government alerts were issued to prepare the hospital system for this potentially intense outbreak. We then assess the 2022 predictions and project the 2023 season. Model predictions for 2023 indicate that RSV activity has not fully returned to normal, with a projected early and moderately intense wave. We estimate that NPIs reduced RSV transmission between 15% and 50% during periods of COVID-19 circulation. A wide range of NPIs impacted the dynamics of the RSV outbreaks throughout 2020-2023 in regard to timing, magnitude, and age structure, with important implications in a low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) setting where RSV interventions remain limited. More efforts should focus on adapting RSV models to LMIC data to project the impact of upcoming medical interventions for this disease.
Sections du résumé
Background
UNASSIGNED
The South African government employed various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Surveillance data from South Africa indicates reduced circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) throughout the 2020-2021 seasons. Here, we use a mechanistic transmission model to project the rebound of RSV in the two subsequent seasons.
Methods
UNASSIGNED
We fit an age-structured epidemiological model to hospitalization data from national RSV surveillance in South Africa, allowing for time-varying reduction in RSV transmission during periods of COVID-19 circulation. We apply the model to project the rebound of RSV in the 2022 and 2023 seasons.
Results
UNASSIGNED
We projected an early and intense outbreak of RSV in April 2022, with an age shift to older infants (6-23 months old) experiencing a larger portion of severe disease burden than typical. In March 2022, government alerts were issued to prepare the hospital system for this potentially intense outbreak. We then assess the 2022 predictions and project the 2023 season. Model predictions for 2023 indicate that RSV activity has not fully returned to normal, with a projected early and moderately intense wave. We estimate that NPIs reduced RSV transmission between 15% and 50% during periods of COVID-19 circulation.
Conclusions
UNASSIGNED
A wide range of NPIs impacted the dynamics of the RSV outbreaks throughout 2020-2023 in regard to timing, magnitude, and age structure, with important implications in a low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) setting where RSV interventions remain limited. More efforts should focus on adapting RSV models to LMIC data to project the impact of upcoming medical interventions for this disease.
Identifiants
pubmed: 38090227
doi: 10.1111/irv.13229
pii: IRV13229
pmc: PMC10710953
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e13229Informations de copyright
© 2023 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Anne von Gottberg, Cheryl Cohen, Jocelyn Moyes, and Sibongile Walaza acknowledge grants from Sanofi Pasteur, PATH, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and SA‐Medical Research Council, The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US), and Wellcome Trust. Alexandra B. Hogan was previously engaged by Pfizer Inc. to advise on modeling RSV vaccination strategies for which she received no financial compensation. Ms. Hansen received contract‐based hourly fees from Sanofi outside of the submitted work.