The novel predictive nomograms for early death in metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma: A large cohort study.
Journal
Medicine
ISSN: 1536-5964
Titre abrégé: Medicine (Baltimore)
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 2985248R
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
05 Jan 2024
05 Jan 2024
Historique:
medline:
5
1
2024
pubmed:
5
1
2024
entrez:
5
1
2024
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an aggressive disease which usually have a poor prognosis. Early mortality and risk factors in patients with metastatic HCC are poorly understood. Our study sought to identify associated risk factors and develop the nomograms for predicting early death in metastatic HCC patients. The patients diagnosed with metastatic HCC were chosen from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database between 2010 and 2015. To identify significant independent risk factors for early death, both univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used. We constructed a pragmatic nomogram and then evaluated by using receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis. The prediction model included 2587 patients with metastatic HCC. Among them, 1550 experienced early death (died within 3 months of initial diagnosis) and 1437 died from cancer-specific causes. Multivariate logistic regression analysis found that grade, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, alpha-fetoprotein levels, and lung metastasis were independent risk factors for both all-cause early death and cancer-specific early death. In addition, bone metastasis were independent risk factors for all-cause early death, T-stage and brain metastasis were also independent risk factors for cancer-specific early death. Then we used the relevant risk factors to developed the practical nomograms of all-cause and cancer-specific early deaths. The nomograms demonstrated good predictive power and clinical utility under receiver operating characteristic curves and decision curve analysis. We developed 2 novel comprehensive nomograms to predict early death among metastatic HCC patients. Nomograms may help oncologists develop better treatment strategies and implementation of individualized treatment plans.
Identifiants
pubmed: 38181257
doi: 10.1097/MD.0000000000036812
pii: 00005792-202401050-00029
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e36812Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2024 the Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have no funding and conflicts of interest to disclose.
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