Forecasting the Incidence and Prevalence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Canadian nationwide analysis.

Canada has a high burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Historical trends of IBD incidence and prevalence were analyzed to forecast the Canadian burden over the next decade. Population-based surveillance cohorts in eight provinces derived from health administrative data assessed the national incidence (2007-2014) and prevalence (2002-2014) of IBD. Autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to forecast incidence and prevalence, stratified by age, with 95% prediction intervals (PIs), to 2035. The average annual percentage change (AAPC), with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated for the forecasted incidence and prevalence. The national incidence of IBD is estimated to be 29.9 per 100,000 (95%PI: 28.3, 31.5) in 2023. With a stable AAPC of 0.36% (95%CI: -0.05, 0.72), the incidence of IBD is forecasted to be 31.2 per 100,000 (95%PI: 28.1, 34.3) in 2035. The incidence in pediatrics (<18 years) is increasing (AAPC:1.27%; 95%CI: 0.82, 1.67), but stable in adults (AAPC: 0.26%; 95%CI: -0.42, 0.82). The prevalence of IBD in Canada was 843 per 100,000 (95%PI: 716, 735) in 2023 and is expected to steadily climb (AAPC: 2.43%; 95%CI: 2.32, 2.54) to 1,098 per 100,000 (95%PI: 1068, 1127) by 2035. The highest prevalence is in seniors with IBD (1174 per 100,000 in 2023; AAPC: 2.78%; 95%CI: 2.75, 2.81). Over the next decade, the Canadian healthcare systems will contend with the juxtaposition of rising incidence of pediatric IBD and a rising prevalence of overall IBD driven by the aging population.

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Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of The American College of Gastroenterology.