Predictive risk model of recurrence of acute diverticulitis after the first episode.
acute diverticulitis
predictive models
recurrence
risk factors
Journal
World journal of surgery
ISSN: 1432-2323
Titre abrégé: World J Surg
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 7704052
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Feb 2024
Feb 2024
Historique:
received:
21
09
2023
accepted:
19
11
2023
medline:
5
2
2024
pubmed:
4
2
2024
entrez:
3
2
2024
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The recurrence of acute diverticulitis (AD) of the colon is frequent and leads to hospital readmissions and the need for elective surgery in selected cases. It is important to individualize risk factors and develop predictive tools for their identification. This prospective observational study included 368 patients who were diagnosed with AD between 2016 and 2021 in a tertiary general university hospital during their first episode and who had a good response to antibiotic, percutaneous, or peritoneal lavage treatment. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses of the variables associated with recurrence were performed. Subsequently, a predictive risk score was developed and validated through survival studies. After a median follow-up of 50 months, there were 71 (19.3%) cases of recurrence out of a total of 368 patients. The mean time of recurrence was 15 months, and 73.3% of cases of recurrence occurred before 2 years of follow-up. Recurrence was independently associated with presentation with colonic perforation in the antimesenteric location (HR 3.67 95% CI [1.59-8.4]) and a CRP level greater than 100 mg/dl (HR 1.69 95% CI [1.04-2.77). A score with 5 variables was created that differentiated two risk groups: intermediate risk (0-3 points), with 19% recurrence and high risk (more than 3 points), with 42% recurrence. The risk of recurrence after the first episode of diverticulitis can be estimated using predictive scores. The detection of high-risk patients facilitates the individualization of follow-up and treatment.
Types de publication
Observational Study
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
466-473Commentaires et corrections
Type : ErratumIn
Informations de copyright
© 2023 International Society of Surgery/Société Internationale de Chirurgie (ISS/SIC).
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