The public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND

The R21/Matrix-M vaccine has demonstrated high efficacy against Plasmodium falciparum clinical malaria in children in sub-Saharan Africa. Using trial data, we aimed to estimate the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccine introduction across sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We fitted a semi-mechanistic model of the relationship between anti-circumsporozoite protein antibody titres and vaccine efficacy to data from 3 years of follow-up in the phase 2b trial of R21/Matrix-M in Nanoro, Burkina Faso. We validated the model by comparing predicted vaccine efficacy to that observed over 12-18 months in the phase 3 trial. Integrating this framework within a mathematical transmission model, we estimated the cases, malaria deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted and cost-effectiveness over a 15-year time horizon across a range of transmission settings in sub-Saharan Africa. Cost-effectiveness was estimated incorporating the cost of vaccine introduction (dose, consumables, and delivery) relative to existing interventions at baseline. We report estimates at a median of 20% parasite prevalence in children aged 2-10 years (PfPR

FINDINGS

Anti-circumsporozoite protein antibody titres were found to satisfy the criteria for a surrogate of protection for vaccine efficacy against clinical malaria. Age-based implementation of a four-dose regimen of R21/Matrix-M vaccine was estimated to avert 181 825 (range 38 815-333 491) clinical cases per 100 000 fully vaccinated children in perennial settings and 202 017 (29 868-405 702) clinical cases per 100 000 fully vaccinated children in seasonal settings. Similar estimates were obtained for seasonal or hybrid implementation. Under an assumed vaccine dose price of US$3, the incremental cost per clinical case averted was $7 (range 4-48) in perennial settings and $6 (3-63) in seasonal settings and the incremental cost per DALY averted was $34 (29-139) in perennial settings and $30 (22-172) in seasonal settings, with lower cost-effectiveness ratios in settings with higher PfPR

INTERPRETATION

Introduction of the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine could have a substantial public health benefit across sub-Saharan Africa.

FUNDING

The Wellcome Trust, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the UK Medical Research Council, the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership 2 and 3, the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and the Serum Institute of India, Open Philanthropy.

Informations de copyright

Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Declaration of interests AVSH and KJE are named as co-inventors on patent applications related to R21 and are entitled to a royalty share on any future income in conformity with the University of Oxford's policy. KJE was an employee of the University of Oxford at the time of the work and is now an employee of GSK. KJE holds restricted shares in the GSK group of companies. The University of Oxford has received funding from the Serum Institute of India to support funding of several African trials including the ongoing phase 3 trial of R21/Matrix-M. AVSH is chief investigator of these trials. PW has received funding from Gavi and the Wellcome Trust in the past 36 months. ACG has received funding from Gavi and NIH and consulting fees from the Global Fund in the past 36 months and is a trustee at Malaria No More UK. All other authors declare no competing interests.