Epidemiology of Human Seasonal Coronaviruses Among People With Mild and Severe Acute Respiratory Illness in Blantyre, Malawi, 2011-2017.

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to characterize the epidemiology of human seasonal coronaviruses (HCoVs) in southern Malawi.

METHODS

We tested for HCoVs 229E, OC43, NL63, and HKU1 using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on upper respiratory specimens from asymptomatic controls and individuals of all ages recruited through severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) surveillance at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, and a prospective influenza-like illness (ILI) observational study between 2011 and 2017. We modeled the probability of having a positive PCR for each HCoV using negative binomial models, and calculated pathogen-attributable fractions (PAFs).

RESULTS

Overall, 8.8% (539/6107) of specimens were positive for ≥1 HCoV. OC43 was the most frequently detected HCoV (3.1% [191/6107]). NL63 was more frequently detected in ILI patients (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 9.60 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 3.25-28.30]), while 229E (aIRR, 8.99 [95% CI, 1.81-44.70]) was more frequent in SARI patients than asymptomatic controls. In adults, 229E and OC43 were associated with SARI (PAF, 86.5% and 89.4%, respectively), while NL63 was associated with ILI (PAF, 85.1%). The prevalence of HCoVs was similar between children with SARI and controls. All HCoVs had bimodal peaks but distinct seasonality.

CONCLUSIONS

OC43 was the most prevalent HCoV in acute respiratory illness of all ages. Individual HCoVs had distinct seasonality that differed from temperate settings.

Informations de copyright

© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Potential conflicts of interest. J. M. R. has received funding from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) (MR/V038613/1). A. H. was supported by a Wellcome Trust Clinical PhD Fellowship (097464) and receives funding from UKRI, the Medical Research Council, British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, Wellcome Trust, and the Medical Research Foundation, unrelated to this work. S. A. was supported by a Wellcome Trust Clinical PhD Fellowship (099962). All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed.