Optimal environmental testing frequency for outbreak surveillance.

Early pathogen detection Environmental surveillance Mathematical modeling Vector trapping Wastewater sampling

Journal

Epidemics
ISSN: 1878-0067
Titre abrégé: Epidemics
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 101484711

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
15 Feb 2024
Historique:
received: 14 09 2023
revised: 12 01 2024
accepted: 14 02 2024
medline: 24 2 2024
pubmed: 24 2 2024
entrez: 23 2 2024
Statut: aheadofprint

Résumé

Public health surveillance for pathogens presents an optimization problem: we require enough sampling to identify intervention-triggering shifts in pathogen epidemiology, such as new introductions or sudden increases in prevalence, but not so much that costs due to surveillance itself outweigh those from pathogen-associated illness. To determine this optimal sampling frequency, we developed a general mathematical model for the introduction of a new pathogen that, once introduced, increases in prevalence exponentially. Given the relative cost of infection vs. sampling, we derived equations for the expected combined cost per unit time of disease burden and surveillance for a specified sampling frequency, and thus the sampling frequency for which the expected total cost per unit time is lowest.

Identifiants

DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100750 PMID: 38394927
pubmed: 38394927
pii: S1755-4365(24)00011-2
doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100750
pii:
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

100750

Informations de copyright

Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Declaration of competing interest None.

Auteurs

Jason W Olejarz (JW)

Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA. Electronic address: olejarz@g.harvard.edu.

Kirstin I Oliveira Roster (KIO)

Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA.

Stephen M Kissler (SM)

Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Department of Computer Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.

Marc Lipsitch (M)

Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA.

Yonatan H Grad (YH)

Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA.

Classifications MeSH