Individual Survival Distributions Generated by Multi-Task Logistic Regression Yield a New Perspective on Molecular and Clinical Prognostic Factors in Gastric Adenocarcinoma.

Recent advances in our understanding of gastric cancer biology have prompted a shift towards more personalized therapy. However, results are based on population-based survival analyses, which evaluate the average survival effects of entire treatment groups or single prognostic variables. This study uses a personalized survival modelling approach called individual survival distributions (ISDs) with the multi-task logistic regression (MTLR) model to provide novel insight into personalized survival in gastric adenocarcinoma. We performed a pooled analysis using 1043 patients from a previously characterized database annotated with molecular subtypes from the Cancer Genome Atlas, Asian Cancer Research Group, and tumour microenvironment (TME) score. The MTLR model achieved a 5-fold cross-validated concordance index of 72.1 ± 3.3%. This model found that the TME score and chemotherapy had similar survival effects over the entire study time. The TME score provided the greatest survival benefit beyond a 5-year follow-up. Stage III and Stage IV disease contributed the greatest negative effect on survival. The MTLR model weights were significantly correlated with the Cox model coefficients (Pearson coefficient = 0.86,