Relative pandemic severity in Canada and four peer nations during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

Background

National responses to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic have been highly variable. We sought to explore the effectiveness of the Canadian pandemic response up to May 2022 relative to responses in four peer countries with similar political, economic and health systems, and with close historical and cultural ties to Canada.

Methods

We used reported age-specific mortality data to generate estimates of pandemic mortality standardized to the Canadian population. Age-specific case fatality, hospitalization, and intensive care admission probabilities for the Canadian province of Ontario were applied to estimated deaths, to calculate hospitalizations and intensive care admissions averted by the Canadian response. Health impacts were valued in both monetary terms, and in terms of lost quality-adjusted life years.

Results

We estimated that the Canadian pandemic response averted 94,492, 64,306 and 13,641 deaths relative to the responses of the United States, United Kingdom and France, respectively, and more than 480,000 hospitalizations relative to the United States. The United States pandemic response, if applied to Canada, would have resulted in more than $40 billion in economic losses due to healthcare expenditures and lost quality-adjusted life years. In contrast, an Australian pandemic response applied to Canada would have averted over 28,000 additional deaths and averted nearly $9 billion in costs.

Conclusion

Canada outperformed several peer countries that aimed for mitigation rather than elimination of SARS-CoV-2 in the first two years of the pandemic, with substantial numbers of lives saved and economic costs averted. However, a comparison with Australia demonstrated that an elimination focus would have saved Canada tens of thousands of lives as well as substantial economic costs.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Competing interests DNF has served on advisory boards related to influenza and SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for Seqirus, Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Sanofi-Pasteur Vaccines, and has served as a legal expert on issues related to COVID-19 epidemiology for the Elementary Teachers Federation of Ontario and the Registered Nurses Association of Ontario. ART was employed by the Public Health Agency of Canada when the research was conducted.