Projected incidence trends of need for long-term care in German men and women from 2011 to 2021.
aggregated data
chronic conditions
epidemiology
frailty
illness-death model
long-term care
partial differential equation
Journal
Frontiers in epidemiology
ISSN: 2674-1199
Titre abrégé: Front Epidemiol
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 9918419158106676
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2023
2023
Historique:
received:
30
08
2023
accepted:
18
10
2023
medline:
8
3
2024
pubmed:
8
3
2024
entrez:
8
3
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The German Federal Statistical Office routinely collects and reports aggregated numbers of people in need of long-term care (NLTC) stratified by age and sex. Age- and sex-specific prevalence of NLTC from 2011 to 2021 is reported as well. One estimation of the incidence rate of NLTC based on the age- and sex-specific prevalence exists that did not explore possible trends in incidence [based on MRR (mortality rate ratio)], which is important for an adequate projection of the future number of people with NLTC. We aim to explore possible trends in age-specific incidence of NLTC in German men and women from 2011 to 2021 based on different scenarios about excess mortality (in terms of MRR). The incidence of NLTC was calculated based on an illness-death model and a related partial differential equation based on data from the Federal Statistical Office. Estimation of annual percent change (APC) of the incidence rate was conducted in eight scenarios. There are consistent indications for trends in incidence for men and women aged 50-79 years with APC in incidence rate of more than +9% per year (up to nearly 19%). For ages 80+ the APC is between +0.4% and +12.5%. In all scenarios, women had higher age-specific APCs than men. We performed the first analysis of APC in the age- and sex-specific incidence rate of NLTC in Germany and revealed an increasing trend in the incidences. With these findings, a future prevalence of NLTC can be estimated which may exceed current prognoses.
Sections du résumé
Background
UNASSIGNED
The German Federal Statistical Office routinely collects and reports aggregated numbers of people in need of long-term care (NLTC) stratified by age and sex. Age- and sex-specific prevalence of NLTC from 2011 to 2021 is reported as well. One estimation of the incidence rate of NLTC based on the age- and sex-specific prevalence exists that did not explore possible trends in incidence [based on MRR (mortality rate ratio)], which is important for an adequate projection of the future number of people with NLTC.
Objective
UNASSIGNED
We aim to explore possible trends in age-specific incidence of NLTC in German men and women from 2011 to 2021 based on different scenarios about excess mortality (in terms of MRR).
Methods
UNASSIGNED
The incidence of NLTC was calculated based on an illness-death model and a related partial differential equation based on data from the Federal Statistical Office. Estimation of annual percent change (APC) of the incidence rate was conducted in eight scenarios.
Results
UNASSIGNED
There are consistent indications for trends in incidence for men and women aged 50-79 years with APC in incidence rate of more than +9% per year (up to nearly 19%). For ages 80+ the APC is between +0.4% and +12.5%. In all scenarios, women had higher age-specific APCs than men.
Conclusion
UNASSIGNED
We performed the first analysis of APC in the age- and sex-specific incidence rate of NLTC in Germany and revealed an increasing trend in the incidences. With these findings, a future prevalence of NLTC can be estimated which may exceed current prognoses.
Identifiants
pubmed: 38455912
doi: 10.3389/fepid.2023.1285893
pmc: PMC10910887
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
1285893Informations de copyright
© 2023 Voß, Knippschild, Haß, Tönnies and Brinks.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. The authors RB, SK, SV declared that they were an editorial board member of Frontiers, at the time of submission. This had no impact on the peer review process and the final decision.