Decreased Indian Ocean Dipole variability under prolonged greenhouse warming.
Journal
Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 Apr 2024
01 Apr 2024
Historique:
received:
07
10
2023
accepted:
22
03
2024
medline:
2
4
2024
pubmed:
2
4
2024
entrez:
1
4
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a major climate variability mode that substantially influences weather extremes and climate patterns worldwide. However, the response of IOD variability to anthropogenic global warming remains highly uncertain. The latest IPCC Sixth Assessment Report concluded that human influences on IOD variability are not robustly detected in observations and twenty-first century climate-model projections. Here, using millennial-length climate simulations, we disentangle forced response and internal variability in IOD change and show that greenhouse warming robustly suppresses IOD variability. On a century time scale, internal variability overwhelms the forced change in IOD, leading to a widespread response in IOD variability. This masking effect is mainly caused by a remote influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. However, on a millennial time scale, nearly all climate models show a long-term weakening trend in IOD variability by greenhouse warming. Our results provide compelling evidence for a human influence on the IOD.
Identifiants
pubmed: 38561343
doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-47276-7
pii: 10.1038/s41467-024-47276-7
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
2811Subventions
Organisme : National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF)
ID : NRF-2018R1A5A1024958
Informations de copyright
© 2024. The Author(s).
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