Estimated public health impact of concurrent mask mandate and vaccinate-or-test requirement in Illinois, October to December 2021.

COVID-19 Cases and hospitalizations averted Masks Modeling Vaccines

Journal

BMC public health
ISSN: 1471-2458
Titre abrégé: BMC Public Health
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100968562

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
12 Apr 2024
Historique:
received: 14 11 2023
accepted: 24 02 2024
medline: 13 4 2024
pubmed: 13 4 2024
entrez: 12 4 2024
Statut: epublish

Résumé

Facing a surge of COVID-19 cases in late August 2021, the U.S. state of Illinois re-enacted its COVID-19 mask mandate for the general public and issued a requirement for workers in certain professions to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or undergo weekly testing. The mask mandate required any individual, regardless of their vaccination status, to wear a well-fitting mask in an indoor setting. We used Illinois Department of Public Health's COVID-19 confirmed case and vaccination data and investigated scenarios where masking and vaccination would have been reduced to mimic what would have happened had the mask mandate or vaccine requirement not been put in place. The study examined a range of potential reductions in masking and vaccination mimicking potential scenarios had the mask mandate or vaccine requirement not been enacted. We estimated COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted by changes in masking and vaccination during the period covering October 20 to December 20, 2021. We find that the announcement and implementation of a mask mandate are likely to correlate with a strong protective effect at reducing COVID-19 burden and the announcement of a vaccinate-or-test requirement among frontline professionals is likely to correlate with a more modest protective effect at reducing COVID-19 burden. In our most conservative scenario, we estimated that from the period of October 20 to December 20, 2021, the mask mandate likely prevented approximately 58,000 cases and 1,175 hospitalizations, while the vaccinate-or-test requirement may have prevented at most approximately 24,000 cases and 475 hospitalizations. Our results indicate that mask mandates and vaccine-or-test requirements are vital in mitigating the burden of COVID-19 during surges of the virus.

Sections du résumé

BACKGROUND BACKGROUND
Facing a surge of COVID-19 cases in late August 2021, the U.S. state of Illinois re-enacted its COVID-19 mask mandate for the general public and issued a requirement for workers in certain professions to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or undergo weekly testing. The mask mandate required any individual, regardless of their vaccination status, to wear a well-fitting mask in an indoor setting.
METHODS METHODS
We used Illinois Department of Public Health's COVID-19 confirmed case and vaccination data and investigated scenarios where masking and vaccination would have been reduced to mimic what would have happened had the mask mandate or vaccine requirement not been put in place. The study examined a range of potential reductions in masking and vaccination mimicking potential scenarios had the mask mandate or vaccine requirement not been enacted. We estimated COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted by changes in masking and vaccination during the period covering October 20 to December 20, 2021.
RESULTS RESULTS
We find that the announcement and implementation of a mask mandate are likely to correlate with a strong protective effect at reducing COVID-19 burden and the announcement of a vaccinate-or-test requirement among frontline professionals is likely to correlate with a more modest protective effect at reducing COVID-19 burden. In our most conservative scenario, we estimated that from the period of October 20 to December 20, 2021, the mask mandate likely prevented approximately 58,000 cases and 1,175 hospitalizations, while the vaccinate-or-test requirement may have prevented at most approximately 24,000 cases and 475 hospitalizations.
CONCLUSION CONCLUSIONS
Our results indicate that mask mandates and vaccine-or-test requirements are vital in mitigating the burden of COVID-19 during surges of the virus.

Identifiants

DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-18203-8 PMID: 38609903
pubmed: 38609903
doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-18203-8
pii: 10.1186/s12889-024-18203-8
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

1013

Informations de copyright

© 2024. This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply.

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Auteurs

François M Castonguay (FM)

National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Health Economics and Modeling Unit, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 7101 Avenue du Parc, Local 3180, QC H3N 1X9, Atlanta, Georgia. francois.castonguay@umontreal.ca.
Contact Tracing and Innovation Section (CTIS), State Tribal Local and Territorial (STLT) Task Force, CDC COVID-19 Response; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Modeling Support Team, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta, Georgia. francois.castonguay@umontreal.ca.
Department of Health Management, Evaluation and Policy, University of Montreal School of Public Health, and Centre for Public Health Research - CReSP, 7101 Av du Parc, 3E Étage, Montréal, QC, H3N 1X9, Canada. francois.castonguay@umontreal.ca.

Arti Barnes (A)

Illinois Department of Public Health, Springfield, IL, USA.

Seonghye Jeon (S)

National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Health Economics and Modeling Unit, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 7101 Avenue du Parc, Local 3180, QC H3N 1X9, Atlanta, Georgia.
Contact Tracing and Innovation Section (CTIS), State Tribal Local and Territorial (STLT) Task Force, CDC COVID-19 Response; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Modeling Support Team, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta, Georgia.

Jane Fornoff (J)

Illinois Department of Public Health, Springfield, IL, USA.

Bishwa B Adhikari (BB)

National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Health Economics and Modeling Unit, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 7101 Avenue du Parc, Local 3180, QC H3N 1X9, Atlanta, Georgia.
Contact Tracing and Innovation Section (CTIS), State Tribal Local and Territorial (STLT) Task Force, CDC COVID-19 Response; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Modeling Support Team, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta, Georgia.

Leah S Fischer (LS)

National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Health Economics and Modeling Unit, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 7101 Avenue du Parc, Local 3180, QC H3N 1X9, Atlanta, Georgia.
Contact Tracing and Innovation Section (CTIS), State Tribal Local and Territorial (STLT) Task Force, CDC COVID-19 Response; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Modeling Support Team, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta, Georgia.

Bradford Greening (B)

National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Health Economics and Modeling Unit, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 7101 Avenue du Parc, Local 3180, QC H3N 1X9, Atlanta, Georgia.
Contact Tracing and Innovation Section (CTIS), State Tribal Local and Territorial (STLT) Task Force, CDC COVID-19 Response; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Modeling Support Team, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta, Georgia.

Adebola O Hassan (AO)

Illinois Department of Public Health, Springfield, IL, USA.

Emily B Kahn (EB)

National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Health Economics and Modeling Unit, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 7101 Avenue du Parc, Local 3180, QC H3N 1X9, Atlanta, Georgia.
Contact Tracing and Innovation Section (CTIS), State Tribal Local and Territorial (STLT) Task Force, CDC COVID-19 Response; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Modeling Support Team, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta, Georgia.

Gloria J Kang (GJ)

National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Health Economics and Modeling Unit, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 7101 Avenue du Parc, Local 3180, QC H3N 1X9, Atlanta, Georgia.
Contact Tracing and Innovation Section (CTIS), State Tribal Local and Territorial (STLT) Task Force, CDC COVID-19 Response; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Modeling Support Team, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta, Georgia.

Judy Kauerauf (J)

Illinois Department of Public Health, Springfield, IL, USA.

Sarah Patrick (S)

Illinois Department of Public Health, Springfield, IL, USA.

Sameer Vohra (S)

Illinois Department of Public Health, Springfield, IL, USA.

Martin I Meltzer (MI)

National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Health Economics and Modeling Unit, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 7101 Avenue du Parc, Local 3180, QC H3N 1X9, Atlanta, Georgia.
Contact Tracing and Innovation Section (CTIS), State Tribal Local and Territorial (STLT) Task Force, CDC COVID-19 Response; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Modeling Support Team, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta, Georgia.

Classifications MeSH