Estimated health benefits, costs and cost-effectiveness of eliminating industrial trans

Nigeria is committed to reducing industrial The effect on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) burden, costs and cost-effectiveness of a mandatory iTFA limit (≤2% of all fats) for foods in Nigeria were estimated using Markov cohort models. Data on demographics, IHD epidemiology and Over the first 10 years, a mandatory iTFA limit (assumed to eliminate iTFA intake) was estimated to prevent 9996 (95% uncertainty interval: 8870 to 11 118) IHD deaths and 66 569 (58 862 to 74 083) IHD events, and to save US$90 million (78 to 102) in healthcare costs. The corresponding lifetime estimates were 259 934 (228 736 to 290 191), 479 308 (95% UI 420 472 to 538 177) and 518 (450 to 587). Policy implementation costs were estimated at US$17 million (11 to 23) over the first 10 years, and US$26 million USD (19 to 33) over the population's lifetime. The intervention was estimated to be cost-saving, and findings were robust across several deterministic sensitivity analyses. Our findings support mandating a limit of iTFAs as a cost-saving strategy to reduce the IHD burden in Nigeria.

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Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form and declare the following: MM report grant support from Resolve to Save Lives and the World Health Organization; and travel support from the Nordic Dairy Congress 2022; all outside of the present work. MDH has received travel support from the American Heart Association and World Heart Federation. MDH has an appointment at The George Institute for Global Health, which has a patent, license and has received investment funding with intent to commercialise fixed-dose combination therapy through its social enterprise business, George Medicines. MDH has pending patents for heart failure polypills.