Modeling temperature-dependent life-cycle toxicity of thiamethoxam in Chironomus riparius using a DEB-TKTD model.

The neonicotinoid insecticide thiamethoxam (TMX) is widely used to protect crops against insect pests. Despite some desirable properties such as its low toxicity to birds and mammals, concerns have been raised about its toxicity to non-target arthropods, including freshwater insects like chironomids. Whereas multiple studies have investigated chronic effects of neonicotinoids in chironomid larvae at standardized laboratory conditions, a better understanding of their chronic toxicity under variable temperatures and exposure is needed for coherent extrapolation from the laboratory to the field. Here, we developed a quantitative mechanistic effect model for Chironomus riparius, to simulate the species' life history under dynamic temperatures and exposure concentrations of TMX. Laboratory experiments at four different temperatures (12, 15, 20, 23 °C) and TMX concentrations between 4 and 51 µg/L were used to calibrate the model. Observed concentration-dependent effects of TMX in C. riparius included slower growth, later emergence, and higher mortality rates with increasing concentrations. Furthermore, besides a typical accelerating effect on the organisms' growth and development, higher temperatures further increased the effects associated with TMX. With some data-informed modeling decisions, most prominently the inclusion of a size dependence that makes larger animals more sensitive to TMX, the model was parametrized to convincingly reproduce the data. Experiments at both a constant (20 °C) and a dynamically increasing temperature (15-23 °C) with pulsed exposure were used to validate the model. Finally, the model was used to simulate realistic exposure conditions using two reference exposure scenarios measured in Missouri and Nebraska, utilizing a moving time window (MTW) and either a constant temperature (20 °C) or the measured temperature profiles belonging to each respective scenario. Minimum exposure multiplication factors leading to a 10% effect (EP

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Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Josef Koch reports financial support and article publishing charges were provided by Syngenta. Silke Classen reports financial support was provided by Syngenta. Daniel Gerth reports financial support was provided by Syngenta. Natalie Dallmann reports financial support was provided by Syngenta. Tido Strauss reports financial support was provided by Syngenta. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.