A framework for the in silico assessment of the robustness of an MPC in a CDC line in function of process variability.

The shift from batch manufacturing towards continuous manufacturing for the production of oral solid dosages requires the development and implementation of process models and process control. Previous work focused mainly on developing deterministic models for the investigated system. Furthermore, the in silico tuning and analysis of a control strategy are mostly done based on deterministic models. This deterministic approach could lead to wrong actions in diversion strategies and poor transferability of the controller performance if the system behaves differently than the deterministic model. This work introduces a framework that explicitly includes the process variability which is characteristic of powder handling processes and tests it on a novel continuous feeding-blending unit (i.e., the FE continuous processing system (CPS)), followed by a tablet press (i.e., the FE 55). It employs a stochastic model by allowing the model parameters to have a probability distribution. The performance of a model predictive control (MPC), steering the feed rate of the main excipient feeder to compensate for the feed rate deviations of the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) feeder to keep the API concentration close to the desired value, is evaluated and the impact of process variability is assessed in a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. Next to the process variability, a model for the prediction error of the chemometric model and realistic feed rate disturbances were included to increase the transferability of the results to the real system. The obtained results show that process variability is inherently present and that wrong conclusions can be drawn if it is not taken into account in the in silico analysis.

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Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.