A climate-induced tree species bottleneck for forest management in Europe.
Journal
Nature ecology & evolution
ISSN: 2397-334X
Titre abrégé: Nat Ecol Evol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101698577
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
29 Apr 2024
29 Apr 2024
Historique:
received:
02
05
2023
accepted:
24
03
2024
medline:
30
4
2024
pubmed:
30
4
2024
entrez:
29
4
2024
Statut:
aheadofprint
Résumé
Large pulses of tree mortality have ushered in a major reorganization of Europe's forest ecosystems. To initiate a robust next generation of trees, the species that are planted today need to be climatically suitable throughout the entire twenty-first century. Here we developed species distribution models for 69 European tree species based on occurrence data from 238,080 plot locations to investigate the option space for current forest management in Europe. We show that the average pool of tree species continuously suitable throughout the century is smaller than that under current and end-of-century climate conditions, creating a tree species bottleneck for current management. If the need for continuous climate suitability throughout the lifespan of a tree planted today is considered, climate change shrinks the tree species pool available to management by between 33% and 49% of its current values (40% and 54% of potential end-of-century values), under moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6) and severe (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) climate change, respectively. This bottleneck could have strong negative impacts on timber production, carbon storage and biodiversity conservation, as only 3.18, 3.53 and 2.56 species of high potential for providing these functions remain suitable throughout the century on average per square kilometre in Europe. Our results indicate that the option space for silviculture is narrowing substantially because of climate change and that an important adaptation strategy in forestry-creating mixed forests-might be curtailed by widespread losses of climatically suitable tree species.
Identifiants
pubmed: 38684739
doi: 10.1038/s41559-024-02406-8
pii: 10.1038/s41559-024-02406-8
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Subventions
Organisme : Austrian Science Fund (Fonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung)
ID : I 3757-B29
Organisme : EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (H2020 Excellent Science - European Research Council)
ID : 101001905
Organisme : EC | EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (H2020 Excellent Science - European Research Council)
ID : 101001905
Informations de copyright
© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
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