The Global Road Traffic Death Rate and Human Development Index from 2000 to 2019: A Trend Analysis.
Education
Human development index
Income
Life expectancy
Road traffic death rate
Journal
Archives of Iranian medicine
ISSN: 1735-3947
Titre abrégé: Arch Iran Med
Pays: Iran
ID NLM: 100889644
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 Mar 2024
01 Mar 2024
Historique:
received:
24
07
2023
accepted:
19
02
2024
medline:
30
4
2024
pubmed:
30
4
2024
entrez:
30
4
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Numerous studies on the association between the human development index (HDI) and road traffic death rate (RTDR) merely focus on developed countries, not reflecting the relationship between the HDI components and RTDR in a time-trend analysis. Accordingly, this study analyzes the trends of RTDR and their association with the HDI and its components from 2000 to 2019. The RTDR data of 154 countries were imported into the unconditional latent growth model (LGM) to assess the RTDR trends. The impact of the HDI and its components (viz., education, income, and life expectancy [LE viz]) on the trajectory of RTDR was also evaluated using the conditional LGM. The results of the unconditional LGM indicated an overall decreasing trend in RTDR. The conditional LGM results revealed the negative effect of the HDI and its components on the model parameters. The findings of random forests indicated that education and LE were the most crucial variables. Overall, this study emphasizes the significance of HDI and its components, particularly education and LE, in lowering the number of traffic fatalities. In this sense, improving formal education and LE could be one of the main policies that policymakers could consider to reduce RTDR.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Numerous studies on the association between the human development index (HDI) and road traffic death rate (RTDR) merely focus on developed countries, not reflecting the relationship between the HDI components and RTDR in a time-trend analysis. Accordingly, this study analyzes the trends of RTDR and their association with the HDI and its components from 2000 to 2019.
METHODS
METHODS
The RTDR data of 154 countries were imported into the unconditional latent growth model (LGM) to assess the RTDR trends. The impact of the HDI and its components (viz., education, income, and life expectancy [LE viz]) on the trajectory of RTDR was also evaluated using the conditional LGM.
RESULTS
RESULTS
The results of the unconditional LGM indicated an overall decreasing trend in RTDR. The conditional LGM results revealed the negative effect of the HDI and its components on the model parameters. The findings of random forests indicated that education and LE were the most crucial variables.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
Overall, this study emphasizes the significance of HDI and its components, particularly education and LE, in lowering the number of traffic fatalities. In this sense, improving formal education and LE could be one of the main policies that policymakers could consider to reduce RTDR.
Identifiants
pubmed: 38685835
doi: 10.34172/aim.2024.18
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
113-121Informations de copyright
© 2024 The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.