Damage to tropical forests caused by cyclones is driven by wind speed but mediated by topographical exposure and tree characteristics.

Wind Cyclonic Storms Forests Trees / growth & development Tropical Climate Bayes Theorem

hurricane mechanical failure snapping storm tree tropical cyclones tropics typhoon uprooting

Journal

Global change biology

ISSN: 1365-2486

Titre abrégé: Glob Chang Biol

Pays: England

ID NLM: 9888746

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
May 2024

Historique:

revised: 09 04 2024

received: 07 02 2024

accepted: 11 04 2024

medline: 15 5 2024

pubmed: 15 5 2024

entrez: 15 5 2024

Statut: ppublish

Résumé

Each year, an average of 45 tropical cyclones affect coastal areas and potentially impact forests. The proportion of the most intense cyclones has increased over the past four decades and is predicted to continue to do so. Yet, it remains uncertain how topographical exposure and tree characteristics can mediate the damage caused by increasing wind speed. Here, we compiled empirical data on the damage caused by 11 cyclones occurring over the past 40 years, from 74 forest plots representing tropical regions worldwide, encompassing field data for 22,176 trees and 815 species. We reconstructed the wind structure of those tropical cyclones to estimate the maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) and wind direction at the studied plots. Then, we used a causal inference framework combined with Bayesian generalised linear mixed models to understand and quantify the causal effects of MSW, topographical exposure to wind (EXP), tree size (DBH) and species wood density (ρ) on the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, and on the probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level. The probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level and, hence, the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, increased with increasing MSW, and with increasing EXP accentuating the damaging effects of cyclones, in particular at higher wind speeds. Higher ρ decreased the probability of snapping and to a lesser extent of uprooting. Larger trees tended to have lower probabilities of snapping but increased probabilities of uprooting. Importantly, the effect of ρ decreasing the probabilities of snapping was more marked for smaller than larger trees and was further accentuated at higher MSW. Our work emphasises how local topography, tree size and species wood density together mediate cyclone damage to tropical forests, facilitating better predictions of the impacts of such disturbances in an increasingly windier world.

Identifiants

DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17317 PMID: 38747199

pubmed: 38747199

doi: 10.1111/gcb.17317

doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

Pagination

e17317

Subventions

Organisme : National Geographical Society

Organisme : Marie Skłodowska-Curie

ID : 895799

Organisme : Clemson Caribbean Initiative

Organisme : Department of Marine and Wildlife Resources American Samoa

Organisme : French Pacific Funds

Organisme : San Diego State University Research Foundation

Organisme : Hermon Slade Foundation

ID : HSF 19105

Organisme : Swedish Research Council

ID : 2019-03758

Organisme : Strategic Science Investment Fund of the New Zealand Ministry of Business

Organisme : National Science Foundation

ID : 1555657

Organisme : National Science Foundation

ID : 155793

Organisme : Montpellier Advanced Knowledge Institute on Transitions

Organisme : National Park of American Samoa

Informations de copyright

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