Establishment and validation of a predictive model for tracheotomy in critically ill patients and analysis of the impact of different tracheotomy timing on patient prognosis.
Intensive care unit
Invasive mechanical ventilation
MIMIC-IV database
Predictive model
Timing of tracheotomy
Tracheotomy
Journal
BMC anesthesiology
ISSN: 1471-2253
Titre abrégé: BMC Anesthesiol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100968535
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
17 May 2024
17 May 2024
Historique:
received:
11
03
2024
accepted:
14
05
2024
medline:
18
5
2024
pubmed:
18
5
2024
entrez:
17
5
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
In critically ill patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), it is unable to determine early which patients require tracheotomy and whether early tracheotomy is beneficial. Clinical data of patients who were first admitted to the ICU and underwent invasive ventilation for more than 24 h in the Medical Information Marketplace in Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database were retrospectively collected. Patients were categorized into successful extubation and tracheotomy groups according to whether they were subsequently successfully extubated or underwent tracheotomy. The patients were randomly divided into model training set and validation set in a ratio of 7:3. Constructing predictive models and evaluating and validating the models. The tracheotomized patients were divided into the early tracheotomy group (< = 7 days) and the late tracheotomy group (> 7 days), and the prognosis of the two groups was analyzed. A total of 7 key variables were screened: Glasgow coma scale (GCS) score, pneumonia, traumatic intracerebral hemorrhage, hemorrhagic stroke, left and right pupil responses to light, and parenteral nutrition. The area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve of the prediction model constructed through these seven variables was 0.897 (95% CI: 0.876-0.919), and 0.896 (95% CI: 0.866-0.926) for the training and validation sets, respectively. Patients in the early tracheotomy group had a shorter length of hospital stay, IMV duration, and sedation duration compared to the late tracheotomy group (p < 0.05), but there was no statistically significant difference in survival outcomes between the two groups. The prediction model constructed and validated based on the MIMIC-IV database can accurately predict the outcome of tracheotomy in critically ill patients. Meanwhile, early tracheotomy in critically ill patients does not improve survival outcomes but has potential advantages in shortening the duration of hospitalization, IMV, and sedation.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
In critically ill patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), it is unable to determine early which patients require tracheotomy and whether early tracheotomy is beneficial.
METHODS
METHODS
Clinical data of patients who were first admitted to the ICU and underwent invasive ventilation for more than 24 h in the Medical Information Marketplace in Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database were retrospectively collected. Patients were categorized into successful extubation and tracheotomy groups according to whether they were subsequently successfully extubated or underwent tracheotomy. The patients were randomly divided into model training set and validation set in a ratio of 7:3. Constructing predictive models and evaluating and validating the models. The tracheotomized patients were divided into the early tracheotomy group (< = 7 days) and the late tracheotomy group (> 7 days), and the prognosis of the two groups was analyzed.
RESULTS
RESULTS
A total of 7 key variables were screened: Glasgow coma scale (GCS) score, pneumonia, traumatic intracerebral hemorrhage, hemorrhagic stroke, left and right pupil responses to light, and parenteral nutrition. The area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve of the prediction model constructed through these seven variables was 0.897 (95% CI: 0.876-0.919), and 0.896 (95% CI: 0.866-0.926) for the training and validation sets, respectively. Patients in the early tracheotomy group had a shorter length of hospital stay, IMV duration, and sedation duration compared to the late tracheotomy group (p < 0.05), but there was no statistically significant difference in survival outcomes between the two groups.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
The prediction model constructed and validated based on the MIMIC-IV database can accurately predict the outcome of tracheotomy in critically ill patients. Meanwhile, early tracheotomy in critically ill patients does not improve survival outcomes but has potential advantages in shortening the duration of hospitalization, IMV, and sedation.
Identifiants
pubmed: 38760700
doi: 10.1186/s12871-024-02558-x
pii: 10.1186/s12871-024-02558-x
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Validation Study
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
175Informations de copyright
© 2024. The Author(s).
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