Forecasting Inequalities in Survival to Retirement Age by Socioeconomic Status in Denmark and Sweden.
Income
Life expectancy
Lifespan inequality
Modal age at death
Pension policy
Social inequalities
Journal
European journal of population = Revue europeenne de demographie
ISSN: 0168-6577
Titre abrégé: Eur J Popul
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 8511777
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
24 May 2024
24 May 2024
Historique:
received:
04
08
2023
accepted:
30
04
2024
medline:
25
5
2024
pubmed:
25
5
2024
entrez:
24
5
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
In Denmark and Sweden, statutory retirement age is indexed to life expectancy to account for mortality improvements in their populations. However, mortality improvements have not been uniform across different sub-populations. Notably, in both countries, individuals of lower socioeconomic status (SES) have experienced slower mortality improvements. As a result, a uniform rise in the statutory retirement age could disproportionally affect these low-SES groups and may unintentionally lead to a reverse redistribution effect, shifting benefits from short-lived low-SES individuals to long-lived high-SES individuals. The aim of this study is twofold: to quantify and contextualise mortality inequalities by SES in Denmark and Sweden, and to assess how indexing retirement age will affect future survival to retirement age by SES in these countries. We used Danish and Swedish registry data (1988-2019), to aggregate individuals aged 50 + based on their demographic characteristics and SES. We computed period life tables by year, sex, and SES to estimate the difference in survival across different SES groups. We then forecast mortality across SES groups to assess how indexing retirement age will affect survival inequalities to retirement age, using two forecasting models-the Mode model and the Li-Lee model. Mortality inequalities are comparable in Denmark and Sweden, even though the latter generally has higher survival. We also find that indexing retirement age to life expectancy will have two main consequences: it will reduce the probability of reaching retirement for all SES groups, particularly those of low SES, and time spent in retirement will be reduced, particularly for those of high SES.
Identifiants
pubmed: 38789845
doi: 10.1007/s10680-024-09704-8
pii: 10.1007/s10680-024-09704-8
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
17Subventions
Organisme : Rockwool Fonden
ID : Challenges to Implementation of Indexation of the Pension Age in Denmark
Organisme : Rockwool Fonden
ID : Challenges to Implementation of Indexation of the Pension Age in Denmark
Organisme : Rockwool Fonden
ID : Challenges to Implementation of Indexation of the Pension Age in Denmark
Organisme : HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council
ID : 884328
Organisme : HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council
ID : 884328
Organisme : Forskningsrådet om Hälsa, Arbetsliv och Välfärd
ID : 2016-07115
Organisme : Forskningsrådet om Hälsa, Arbetsliv och Välfärd
ID : 2016-07105
Informations de copyright
© 2024. The Author(s).
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