Predicting treatment resistance in schizophrenia patients: Machine learning highlights the role of early pathophysiologic features.

Detecting patients with a high-risk profile for treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS) can be beneficial for implementing individually adapted therapeutic strategies and better understanding the TRS etiology. The aim of this study was to explore, with machine learning methods, the impact of demographic and clinical patient characteristics on TRS prediction, for already established risk factors and unexplored ones. This was a retrospective study of 500 patients admitted during 2020 to the University Hospital Group for Paris Psychiatry. We hypothesized potential TRS risk factors. The selected features were coded into structured variables in a new dataset, by processing patients discharge summaries and medical narratives with natural-language processing methods. We compared three machine learning models (XGBoost, logistic elastic net regression, logistic regression without regularization) for predicting TRS outcome. We analysed feature impact on the models, suggesting the following factors as markers of a high-risk TRS profile: early age at first contact with psychiatry, antipsychotic treatment interruptions due to non-adherence, absence of positive symptoms at baseline, educational problems and adolescence mental disorders in the personal psychiatric history. Specifically, we found a significant association with TRS outcome for age at first contact with psychiatry and medication non-adherence. Our findings on TRS risk factors are consistent with the review of the literature and suggest potential in using early pathophysiologic features for TRS prediction. Results were encouraging with the use of natural-langage processing techniques to leverage raw data provided by discharge summaries, combined with machine leaning models. These findings are a promising step for helping clinicians adapt their guidelines to early detection of TRS.

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Declaration of competing interest None declared.