Online model selection by learning how compositional kernels evolve.

Motivated by the need for efficient, personalized learning in mobile health, we investigate the problem of online compositional kernel selection for multi-task Gaussian Process regression. Existing composition selection methods do not satisfy our strict criteria in health; selection must occur quickly, and the selected kernels must maintain the appropriate level of complexity, sparsity, and stability as data arrives online. We introduce the Kernel Evolution Model (KEM), a generative process on how to evolve kernel compositions in a way that manages the bias-variance trade-off as we observe more data about a user. Using pilot data, we learn a set of