Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts.
biodiversity
climate change
scale
species distribution modeling
time-series data
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 1091-6490
Titre abrégé: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 7505876
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
11 Jun 2024
11 Jun 2024
Historique:
medline:
3
6
2024
pubmed:
3
6
2024
entrez:
3
6
2024
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Given the importance of climate in shaping species' geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data-such that individuals at the cool edge of a species' distribution should benefit from warming (the "leading edge"), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the "trailing edge"). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (
Identifiants
pubmed: 38830099
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2315700121
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e2315700121Subventions
Organisme : US National Science Foundation
ID : DBI-1802893
Organisme : Swiss National Science Foundation
ID : Sinergia project CALDERA no.183571
Pays : Switzerland
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.