The impact of temperature, humidity and closing school on the mumps epidemic: a case study in the mainland of China.
Basic reproduction number
Data fitting
Humidity
Mumps
School opening and closing
Temperature
Journal
BMC public health
ISSN: 1471-2458
Titre abrégé: BMC Public Health
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100968562
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
19 Jun 2024
19 Jun 2024
Historique:
received:
28
11
2023
accepted:
09
05
2024
medline:
20
6
2024
pubmed:
20
6
2024
entrez:
19
6
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
To control resurging infectious diseases like mumps, it is necessary to resort to effective control and preventive measures. These measures include increasing vaccine coverage, providing the community with advice on how to reduce exposure, and closing schools. To justify such intervention, it is important to understand how well each of these measures helps to limit transmission. In this paper, we propose a simple SEILR (susceptible-exposed-symptomatically infectious-asymptomatically infectious-recovered) model by using a novel transmission rate function to incorporate temperature, humidity, and closing school factors. This new transmission rate function allows us to verify the impact of each factor either separately or combined. Using reported mumps cases from 2004 to 2018 in the mainland of China, we perform data fitting and parameter estimation to evaluate the basic reproduction number We find that the basic reproduction number We conclude that the strategy of increasing vaccine coverage, changing micro-climate (temperature and humidity), and closing schools can greatly reduce mumps transmission.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
To control resurging infectious diseases like mumps, it is necessary to resort to effective control and preventive measures. These measures include increasing vaccine coverage, providing the community with advice on how to reduce exposure, and closing schools. To justify such intervention, it is important to understand how well each of these measures helps to limit transmission.
METHODS
METHODS
In this paper, we propose a simple SEILR (susceptible-exposed-symptomatically infectious-asymptomatically infectious-recovered) model by using a novel transmission rate function to incorporate temperature, humidity, and closing school factors. This new transmission rate function allows us to verify the impact of each factor either separately or combined. Using reported mumps cases from 2004 to 2018 in the mainland of China, we perform data fitting and parameter estimation to evaluate the basic reproduction number
RESULTS
RESULTS
We find that the basic reproduction number
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
We conclude that the strategy of increasing vaccine coverage, changing micro-climate (temperature and humidity), and closing schools can greatly reduce mumps transmission.
Identifiants
pubmed: 38898424
doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-18819-w
pii: 10.1186/s12889-024-18819-w
doi:
Substances chimiques
Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1632Informations de copyright
© 2024. The Author(s).
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