The progression trajectory of Bipolar Disorder: Results from the application of a staging model over a ten-year observation.

BACKGROUND

Trying to better define Bipolar Disorder (BD) progression, different staging models have been conceptualized, each one emphasizing different aspects of illness. In a previous article we retrospectively applied the main staging models to a sample of 100 bipolar patients at four time points over a ten-year observation. In the present study, focusing on Kupka & Hillegers's model, we aimed to assess the transition of the same sample through the different stages of illness and to explore the potential role of clinical variables on the risk of progression.

METHODS

Multistate Model using the mstate package in R and Markov model with stratified hazards were used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

A high hazard of transition from stage 2 to 3 emerged, with a probability of staying in stage 2 decreasing to 14 % after 3 years. BD II and depressive predominant polarity were significantly associated with transition from stage 1 to 2, whereas the number of lifetime episodes >3 and the elevated predominant polarity with transition from stage 3 to 4.

CONCLUSION

Our results corroborated the evidence on BD progression and contributed to outline its trajectory over time. Further effort may help to define a standardized staging approach towards ever increasing tailored interventions.

Informations de copyright

Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Declaration of competing interest In the last three years, Prof. Dell'Osso has received lecture honoraria and grants from Angelini, Lundbeck, Janssen, Pfizer, Otzuka, Neuraxpharm, and Livanova. The other authors have no conflicts to declare.