Estimating survival scenarios in advanced or metastatic gastric and oesophageal adenocarcinoma: a systematic review of randomized-controlled trials.

BACKGROUND

We aimed to summarize survival data from RCTs in patients with GO adenocarcinoma; estimate and explain worst-, typical-, and best-case-scenarios of survival time; and determine if simple multiples of median overall survival (mOS) could estimate these percentiles.

METHODS

We systematically searched RCTs of systemic therapies for GO adenocarcinoma published 2000-2022. The following key percentiles were extracted from overall survival curves: 90th (worst-case), 75th (lower-typical), 25th (upper-typical), and 10th (best-case). We tested if these percentiles could be estimated by simple multiples of mOS: 0.25 of the median for the 90

RESULTS

We identified 44 trials (22,447 participants). For first line chemotherapy and immunotherapy combined (CI) trials (

CONCLUSION

We provide realistic, evidence-based prognostic information as scenarios for survival time which can inform clinical decision-making. Simple multiples of the mOS accurately estimated the percentiles for most groups.