Implications of subclinical tuberculosis for vaccine trial design and global effect.

Tuberculosis is a leading cause of death from an infectious agent globally. Infectious subclinical tuberculosis accounts for almost half of all tuberculosis cases in national tuberculosis prevalence surveys, and possibly contributes to transmission and might be associated with morbidity. Modelling studies suggest that new tuberculosis vaccines could have substantial health and economic effects, partly based on the assumptions made regarding subclinical tuberculosis. Evaluating the efficacy of prevention of disease tuberculosis vaccines intended for preventing both clinical and subclinical tuberculosis is a priority. Incorporation of subclinical tuberculosis as a composite endpoint in tuberculosis vaccine trials can help to reduce the sample size and duration of follow-up and to evaluate the efficacy of tuberculosis vaccines in preventing clinical and subclinical tuberculosis. Several design options with various benefits, limitations, and ethical considerations are possible in this regard, which would allow for the generation of the evidence needed to estimate the positive global effects of tuberculosis vaccine trials, in addition to informing policy and vaccination strategies.

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Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

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Declaration of interests The following authors declare grants to their respective institutions. GJC: Division of AIDS/NIH. ALF-G: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US NIH for HIV Vaccine Trials Network Statistical Center. ALG-B: Barcelona Institute for Global Health tenure track associate research professorship. EBW: Burroughs Wellcome Fund, 1022002; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, INV-046520; NIH/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, AI201700104 and AI147321. FC: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, EDCTP. HE: Canadian Institutes for Health Research, Tier 1 Canada Research Chair. VM: NIH, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. MH: NIH, EDCTP, Gates Medical Research Institute. RMGJH: European Research Council. RGW: Wellcome Trust (218261/Z/19/Z), NIH (1R01AI147321-01, G-202303-69963), EDCTP (RIA208D-2505B), UK Medical Research Council (CCF17-7779 Bloomsbury), Economic and Social Research Council (ES/P008011/1), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-004737, INV-035506), WHO (2020/985800-0). ADG, WAH, MB, ACS, KF, AFD, and MXR declare no competing interests. The following authors declare royalties. ALG-B: Royalties for the patent Molecular differences between species of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex in November, 2020 and November, 2021. HE: Royalties to Stanford University for the patent Molecular differences between species of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex in November, 2020 and November, 2021.