Evaluating the performance of a risk assessment score tool to predict HIV acquisition among pregnant and postpartum women in Kenya.
Humans
Female
Pregnancy
HIV Infections
/ epidemiology
Kenya
/ epidemiology
Adult
Risk Assessment
/ methods
Postpartum Period
Pregnancy Complications, Infectious
/ epidemiology
Cross-Sectional Studies
Young Adult
Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical
/ prevention & control
Risk Factors
ROC Curve
Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis
Adolescent
Journal
PloS one
ISSN: 1932-6203
Titre abrégé: PLoS One
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101285081
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2024
2024
Historique:
received:
19
06
2023
accepted:
25
06
2024
medline:
10
7
2024
pubmed:
10
7
2024
entrez:
10
7
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Clinical risk score tools require validation in diverse settings and populations before they are widely implemented. We aimed to externally validate an HIV risk assessment tool for predicting HIV acquisition among pregnant and postpartum women. In the context of prevention of mother-to-child transmission programs, risk score tools could be used to prioritize retesting efforts and delivery of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to pregnant and postpartum women most at risk for HIV acquisition while minimizing unnecessary perinatal exposure. Data from women enrolled in a cross-sectional study of programmatic HIV retesting and/or receiving maternal and child health care services at five facilities in Western Kenya were used to validate the predictive ability of a simplified risk score previously developed for pregnant/postpartum women. Incident HIV infections were defined as new HIV diagnoses following confirmed negative or unknown status during pregnancy. Predictive performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier score. Among 1266 women with 35 incident HIV infections, we found an AUC for predicting HIV acquisition of 0.60 (95% CI, 0.51, 0.69), with a Brier score of 0.27. A risk score >6 was associated with a 2.9-fold increase in the odds of HIV acquisition (95% CI, 1.48, 5.70; p = 0.002) vs scores ≤6. Women with risk scores >6 were 27% (346/1266) of the population but accounted for 52% of HIV acquisitions. Syphilis, age at sexual debut, and unknown partner HIV status were significantly associated with increased risk of HIV in this cohort. The simplified risk score performed moderately at predicting risk of HIV acquisition in this population of pregnant and postpartum women and may be useful to guide PrEP use or counseling.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Clinical risk score tools require validation in diverse settings and populations before they are widely implemented. We aimed to externally validate an HIV risk assessment tool for predicting HIV acquisition among pregnant and postpartum women. In the context of prevention of mother-to-child transmission programs, risk score tools could be used to prioritize retesting efforts and delivery of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to pregnant and postpartum women most at risk for HIV acquisition while minimizing unnecessary perinatal exposure.
METHODS
METHODS
Data from women enrolled in a cross-sectional study of programmatic HIV retesting and/or receiving maternal and child health care services at five facilities in Western Kenya were used to validate the predictive ability of a simplified risk score previously developed for pregnant/postpartum women. Incident HIV infections were defined as new HIV diagnoses following confirmed negative or unknown status during pregnancy. Predictive performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Brier score.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Among 1266 women with 35 incident HIV infections, we found an AUC for predicting HIV acquisition of 0.60 (95% CI, 0.51, 0.69), with a Brier score of 0.27. A risk score >6 was associated with a 2.9-fold increase in the odds of HIV acquisition (95% CI, 1.48, 5.70; p = 0.002) vs scores ≤6. Women with risk scores >6 were 27% (346/1266) of the population but accounted for 52% of HIV acquisitions. Syphilis, age at sexual debut, and unknown partner HIV status were significantly associated with increased risk of HIV in this cohort.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
The simplified risk score performed moderately at predicting risk of HIV acquisition in this population of pregnant and postpartum women and may be useful to guide PrEP use or counseling.
Identifiants
pubmed: 38985777
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0306992
pii: PONE-D-23-16018
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e0306992Informations de copyright
Copyright: © 2024 Chhun et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.