Drivers and epidemiological patterns of West Nile virus in Serbia.
Culex
West Nile virus
mathematical model
mosquito
vector-borne
Journal
Frontiers in public health
ISSN: 2296-2565
Titre abrégé: Front Public Health
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101616579
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2024
2024
Historique:
received:
08
05
2024
accepted:
01
07
2024
medline:
1
8
2024
pubmed:
1
8
2024
entrez:
1
8
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Serbia, where it has been detected as a cause of infection in humans since 2012. We analyzed and modelled WNV transmission patterns in the country between 2012 and 2023. We applied a previously developed modelling approach to quantify epidemiological parameters of interest and to identify the most important environmental drivers of the force of infection (FOI) by means of statistical analysis in the human population in the country. During the study period, 1,387 human cases were recorded, with substantial heterogeneity across years. We found that spring temperature is of paramount importance for WNV transmission, as FOI magnitude and peak timing are positively associated with it. Furthermore, FOI is also estimated to be greater in regions with a larger fraction of older adult people, who are at higher risk to develop severe infections. Our results highlight that temperature plays a key role in shaping WNV outbreak magnitude in Serbia, confirming the association between spring climatic conditions and WNV human transmission risk and thus pointing out the importance of this factor as a potential early warning predictor for timely application of preventive and control measures.
Sections du résumé
Background
UNASSIGNED
West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen in Serbia, where it has been detected as a cause of infection in humans since 2012. We analyzed and modelled WNV transmission patterns in the country between 2012 and 2023.
Methods
UNASSIGNED
We applied a previously developed modelling approach to quantify epidemiological parameters of interest and to identify the most important environmental drivers of the force of infection (FOI) by means of statistical analysis in the human population in the country.
Results
UNASSIGNED
During the study period, 1,387 human cases were recorded, with substantial heterogeneity across years. We found that spring temperature is of paramount importance for WNV transmission, as FOI magnitude and peak timing are positively associated with it. Furthermore, FOI is also estimated to be greater in regions with a larger fraction of older adult people, who are at higher risk to develop severe infections.
Conclusion
UNASSIGNED
Our results highlight that temperature plays a key role in shaping WNV outbreak magnitude in Serbia, confirming the association between spring climatic conditions and WNV human transmission risk and thus pointing out the importance of this factor as a potential early warning predictor for timely application of preventive and control measures.
Identifiants
pubmed: 39086811
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1429583
pmc: PMC11288825
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1429583Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2024 Marini, Drakulovic, Jovanovic, Dagostin, Wint, Tagliapietra, Vasic and Rizzoli.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
WW was employed by Environmental Research Group Oxford Ltd, c/o Dept Biology. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.