The public health impact of COVID-19 variants of concern on the effectiveness of contact tracing in Vermont, United States.
COVID-19
Case investigation
Cases averted
Contact tracing
Modeling
Journal
Scientific reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
Titre abrégé: Sci Rep
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101563288
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 Aug 2024
01 Aug 2024
Historique:
received:
27
09
2023
accepted:
25
07
2024
medline:
2
8
2024
pubmed:
2
8
2024
entrez:
1
8
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Case investigation and contact tracing (CICT) are public health measures that aim to break the chain of pathogen transmission. Changes in viral characteristics of COVID-19 variants have likely affected the effectiveness of CICT programs. We estimated and compared the cases averted in Vermont when the original COVID-19 strain circulated (Nov. 25, 2020-Jan. 19, 2021) with two periods when the Delta strain dominated (Aug. 1-Sept. 25, 2021, and Sept. 26-Nov. 20, 2021). When the original strain circulated, we estimated that CICT prevented 7180 cases (55% reduction in disease burden), compared to 1437 (15% reduction) and 9970 cases (40% reduction) when the Delta strain circulated. Despite the Delta variant being more infectious and having a shorter latency period, CICT remained an effective tool to slow spread of COVID-19; while these viral characteristics did diminish CICT effectiveness, non-viral characteristics had a much greater impact on CICT effectiveness.
Identifiants
pubmed: 39090157
doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-68634-x
pii: 10.1038/s41598-024-68634-x
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
17848Informations de copyright
© 2024. This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply.
Références
Eames, K. T. & Keeling, M. J. Contact tracing and disease control. Proc. Royal Soc. Lond. Series B Biol. Sci. 270(1533), 2565–2571 (2003).
doi: 10.1098/rspb.2003.2554
Jeon, S. et al. Estimates of cases and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 case investigation and contact tracing in 14 health jurisdictions in the United States. J. Public Health Manag. Pract. 28(1), 16–24 (2022).
doi: 10.1097/PHH.0000000000001420
pubmed: 34534993
Rainisch, G. et al. Estimated COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted by case investigation and contact tracing in the US. JAMA Netw. Open 5(3), e224042–e224042 (2022).
doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.4042
pubmed: 35333362
pmcid: 8956978
Jeon, S. et al. Adapting COVID-19 contact tracing protocols to accommodate resource constraints, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA, 2021. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 30(2), 333 (2024).
doi: 10.3201/eid3002.230988
pubmed: 38181801
pmcid: 10826771
Kraemer, M. U. et al. Monitoring key epidemiological parameters of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Nat. Med. 27(11), 1854–1855 (2021).
doi: 10.1038/s41591-021-01545-w
pubmed: 34750555
Bugalia, S., Tripathi, J. P. & Wang, H. Mutations make pandemics worse or better: Modeling SARS-CoV-2 variants and imperfect vaccination. arXiv preprint arXiv:2201.06285 , (2022).
Wang, Y. et al. Transmission, viral kinetics and clinical characteristics of the emergent SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Guangzhou, China. EClinicalMedicine 40, 101129 (2021).
doi: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.101129
pubmed: 34541481
pmcid: 8435265
Li, B. et al. Viral infection and transmission in a large, well-traced outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant. Nat. Commun. 13(1), 1–9 (2022).
Liu, Y. & Rocklov, J. The reproductive number of the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 is far higher compared to the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 virus. J. Travel Med. 28(7), taab124 (2021).
doi: 10.1093/jtm/taab124
pubmed: 34369565
pmcid: 8436367
Alimohamadi, Y., Sepandi, M. & Esmaeilzadeh, F. Estimate of the basic reproduction number for Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2: A systematic review and meta-analysis. J. Biostat. Epidemiol. 8(1), 1–7 (2022).
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, COVIDTracer and COVIDTracer advanced, 19 January 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/contact-tracing/COVIDTracerTools.html . [Accessed 5 April 2023].
Jeon, S. et al. Estimated cases averted by COVID-19 electronic exposure notification–Pennsylvania, November 8, 2020 to January 2, 2021. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 29(2), 426 (2023).
doi: 10.3201/eid2902.220959
pubmed: 36639132
pmcid: 9881797
Castonguay, F. M. et al. Estimated public health impact of concurrent mask mandate and vaccinate-or-test requirement in Illinois, October to December 2021. BMC Public Health 24(1), 1013 (2024).
doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-18203-8
pubmed: 38609903
pmcid: 11010411
CoVariants (c) 2020–2023 Emma Hodcroft, CoVariants: SARS-CoV-2 Mutations and Variants of Interest. [Online]. Available: https://covariants.org/per-country?region=United+States&country=Vermont . [Accessed 5 April 2023].
Lopez Bernal, J. et al. Effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines against the B. 1.617. 2 (Delta) variant. N. Engl. J. Med. 385(7), 585–594 (2021).
doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2108891
pubmed: 34289274
Levin, E. G. et al. Waning immune humoral response to BNT162b2 Covid-19 vaccine over 6 months. N. Engl. J. Med. 385(24), e84 (2021).
doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2114583
pubmed: 34614326
Rosenblum, H. G. et al. Interim recommendations from the advisory committee on immunization practices for the use of bivalent booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines—United States, October 2022. MMWR Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep. 71(45), 1436–1441 (2022).
doi: 10.15585/mmwr.mm7145a2
pubmed: 36355612
pmcid: 9707353
Ma, X. et al. Contact tracing period and epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Guangzhou. Int. J. Infectious Dis. 117, 18–23 (2022).
doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2022.01.034
Nguyen, T.-P. et al. Rapid impact assessments of COVID-19 control measures against the Delta variant and short-term projections of new confirmed cases in Vietnam. J. Global Health 11, 03118 (2021).
doi: 10.7189/jogh.11.03118
Chiu, W. A. & Ndeffo-Mbah, M. L. Using test positivity and reported case rates to estimate state-level COVID-19 prevalence and seroprevalence in the United States. PLoS Comput. Biol. 17(9), e1009374 (2021).
doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009374
pubmed: 34491990
pmcid: 8448371
Lewis, D. Superspreading drives the COVID pandemic–and could help to tame it. Nature 590(7847), 544–547 (2021).
doi: 10.1038/d41586-021-00460-x
pubmed: 33623168
Bugalia, S., Tripathi, J. P. & Wang, H. Mathematical modeling of intervention and low medical resource availability with delays: Applications to COVID-19 outbreaks in Spain and Italy. Math. Biosci. Eng. 18(5), 5865–5920 (2021).
doi: 10.3934/mbe.2021295
pubmed: 34517515
Borah, B. F. et al. High community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 associated with decreased contact tracing effectiveness for identifying persons at elevated risk of infection-vermont. Clin. Infectious Dis. 75(Supplement_2), S334–S337 (2022).
doi: 10.1093/cid/ciac518
Lash, R. R. et al. COVID-19 case investigation and contact tracing in the US, 2020. JAMA Netw. Open 4(6), e2115850–e2115850 (2021).
doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.15850
pubmed: 34081135
pmcid: 8176334
Xiang, Y. et al. COVID-19 epidemic prediction and the impact of public health interventions: A review of COVID-19 epidemic models. Infectious Dis. Modell. 6, 324–342 (2021).
doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2021.01.001
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios (U.S Department of Health and Human Services, 2020).
Liu, Y., Gayle, A. A., Wilder-Smith, A. & Rocklov, J. The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus. J. Travel Med. 1–4 (2020).
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, COVID-19 Vaccinations in the United States, County, [Online]. Available: https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccinations-in-the-United-States-County/8xkx-amqh . [Accessed 25 April 2023].
Tahamtan, A. & Ardebili, A. Real-time RT-PCR in COVID-19 detection: Issues affecting the results. Expert Rev. Mol. Diagn. 20(5), 453–454 (2020).
doi: 10.1080/14737159.2020.1757437
pubmed: 32297805
Bugalia, S., Tripathi, J. P. & Wang, H. Estimating the time-dependent effective reproduction number and vaccination rate for COVID-19 in the USA and India. Math. Biosci. Eng 20(3), 4673–4689 (2023).
doi: 10.3934/mbe.2023216
pubmed: 36896517
Smith, L. E., Potts, H. W., Amlot, R., Fear, N. T., Michie, S. & Rubin, G. J. Adherence to the test, trace, and isolate system in the UK: Results from 37 nationally representative surveys. BMJ 372(608), (2021).
Park, C. L. et al. Americans’ COVID-19 stress, coping, and adherence to CDC guidelines. J. General Intern. Med. 35(8), 2296–2303 (2020).
doi: 10.1007/s11606-020-05898-9
Pew Research Center, The Challenges of Contact Tracing as U.S. Battles COVID-19. Washington D.C., (2020).
Castonguay, F. M. et al. Building a simple model to assess the impact of case investigation and contact tracing for sexually transmitted diseases: Lessons From COVID-19. AJPM Focus 3(1), 100147 (2024).
doi: 10.1016/j.focus.2023.100147
pubmed: 38149077
Akman, O. et al. The hard lessons and shifting modeling trends of COVID-19 dynamics: Multiresolution modeling approach. Bull. Math. Biol. 84, 1–30 (2022).
doi: 10.1007/s11538-021-00959-4
Chen, M. et al. The introduction of population migration to SEIAR for COVID-19 epidemic modeling with an efficient intervention strategy. Inf. Fusion 64, 252–258 (2020).
doi: 10.1016/j.inffus.2020.08.002
pubmed: 32834796
pmcid: 7406520
Edridge, A. W. et al. Seasonal coronavirus protective immunity is short-lasting. Nat. Med. 26(11), 1691–1693 (2020).
doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-1083-1
pubmed: 32929268