Predicted Expenditure for Prescription Drugs for Multiple Sclerosis in the Italian Market Between 2023 and 2028: Results of the Oracle Project.
BTKi
Costs
Forecast
Italian National Healthcare Service expenditure
Multiple sclerosis
Treatment pattern
Journal
Neurology and therapy
ISSN: 2193-8253
Titre abrégé: Neurol Ther
Pays: New Zealand
ID NLM: 101637818
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
02 Aug 2024
02 Aug 2024
Historique:
received:
19
04
2024
accepted:
02
07
2024
medline:
2
8
2024
pubmed:
2
8
2024
entrez:
2
8
2024
Statut:
aheadofprint
Résumé
Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neurodegenerative disease that leads to impaired cognitive function and accumulation of disability, with significant socioeconomic burden. Serious unmet need in the context of managing MS has given rise to ongoing research efforts, leading to the launch of new drugs planned for the near future, and subsequent concerns about the sustainability of healthcare systems. This study assessed the changes in the Italian MS market and their impact on the expenditures of the Italian National Healthcare Service between 2023 and 2028. A horizon-scanning model was developed to estimate annual expenditure from 2023 to 2028. Annual expenditure for MS was calculated by combining the number of patients treated with each product (clinical inputs) and the yearly costs of therapy (economic inputs). Baseline inputs (2020-2022) were collected from IQVIA The number of equivalent patients treated in 2028 in Italy was estimated at around 67,000, with an increase of 10% versus 2022. In terms of treatment pattern evolution, first-line treatments are expected to reduce their shares from 47% in 2022 to 27% in 2028, and Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors are expected to reach 23% of patient shares. Overall, expenditure for MS is estimated to decrease from €721 million in 2022 to €551 million in 2028, mainly due to losses of exclusivity and renegotiation of drug prices. Despite the increase in the number of patients treated for MS and the launch of new molecules that will reach high market penetration, the model confirmed sustainability for the Italian National Healthcare Service.
Identifiants
pubmed: 39093539
doi: 10.1007/s40120-024-00644-3
pii: 10.1007/s40120-024-00644-3
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Informations de copyright
© 2024. The Author(s).
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