Development of a short-term prognostic model for anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor encephalitis in Chinese patients.
Immunotherapy
Nomogram
Prediction
Prognosis
anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor encephalitis
Journal
BMC neurology
ISSN: 1471-2377
Titre abrégé: BMC Neurol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100968555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
09 Aug 2024
09 Aug 2024
Historique:
received:
01
11
2023
accepted:
12
06
2024
medline:
10
8
2024
pubmed:
10
8
2024
entrez:
9
8
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Recognizing the predictors of poor short-term prognosis after first-line immunotherapy in patients with anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (anti-NMDAR) encephalitis is essential for individualized treatment strategy. The objective of this study was to ascertain the factors that forecast short-term prognosis in patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis, develop a prognostic prediction model, and authenticate its efficacy in an external validation cohort. Further, all patients were followed-up long-term to assess the factors of long-term outcome and relapses. A prospective enrollment of patients diagnosed with anti-NMDAR encephalitis was conducted across five clinical centers in China from June 2014 to Mar 2022. The enrolled patients were divided into the derivation and validation sets based on enrollment time. The short-term prognostic model was visualized using a nomogram. Further, all patients were followed-up long-term to assess the factors of long-term outcome. This study found that poor short-term prognosis was a risk factor for poor long-term outcome (6-month prognosis, OR 29.792, 95%CI 6.507-136.398, p < 0.001; 12-month prognosis, OR 15.756, 95%CI 3.384-73.075, p < 0.001; 24-month prognosis, OR 5.500, 95%CI 1.045-28.955, p = 0.044). Abnormal behavior or cognitive dysfunction (OR 8.57, 95%CI 1.48-49.79, p = 0.017), consciousness impairment (OR19.32, 95%CI 3.03-123.09, p = 0.002), autonomic dysfunction or central hypoventilation (OR 5.66, 95%CI 1.25-25.75, p = 0.025), CSF pleocytosis (OR 4.33, 95%CI 1.48-12.65, p = 0.007), abnormal EEG (OR 5.48, 95% CI 1.09-27.54, p = 0.039) were independent predictors for a poor short-term prognosis after first-line immunotherapy. A nomogram that incorporated those factors showed good discrimination and calibration abilities. The area under the curve (AUC) for the prognostic model were 0.866 (95%CI: 0.798-0.934) with a sensitivity of 0.761 and specificity of 0.869. We established and validated a prognostic model that can provide individual prediction of short-term prognosis after first-line immunotherapy for patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis. This practical prognostic model may help neurologists to predict the short-term prognosis early and potentially assist in adjusting appropriate treatment timely.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Recognizing the predictors of poor short-term prognosis after first-line immunotherapy in patients with anti-N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (anti-NMDAR) encephalitis is essential for individualized treatment strategy. The objective of this study was to ascertain the factors that forecast short-term prognosis in patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis, develop a prognostic prediction model, and authenticate its efficacy in an external validation cohort. Further, all patients were followed-up long-term to assess the factors of long-term outcome and relapses.
METHODS
METHODS
A prospective enrollment of patients diagnosed with anti-NMDAR encephalitis was conducted across five clinical centers in China from June 2014 to Mar 2022. The enrolled patients were divided into the derivation and validation sets based on enrollment time. The short-term prognostic model was visualized using a nomogram. Further, all patients were followed-up long-term to assess the factors of long-term outcome.
RESULTS
RESULTS
This study found that poor short-term prognosis was a risk factor for poor long-term outcome (6-month prognosis, OR 29.792, 95%CI 6.507-136.398, p < 0.001; 12-month prognosis, OR 15.756, 95%CI 3.384-73.075, p < 0.001; 24-month prognosis, OR 5.500, 95%CI 1.045-28.955, p = 0.044). Abnormal behavior or cognitive dysfunction (OR 8.57, 95%CI 1.48-49.79, p = 0.017), consciousness impairment (OR19.32, 95%CI 3.03-123.09, p = 0.002), autonomic dysfunction or central hypoventilation (OR 5.66, 95%CI 1.25-25.75, p = 0.025), CSF pleocytosis (OR 4.33, 95%CI 1.48-12.65, p = 0.007), abnormal EEG (OR 5.48, 95% CI 1.09-27.54, p = 0.039) were independent predictors for a poor short-term prognosis after first-line immunotherapy. A nomogram that incorporated those factors showed good discrimination and calibration abilities. The area under the curve (AUC) for the prognostic model were 0.866 (95%CI: 0.798-0.934) with a sensitivity of 0.761 and specificity of 0.869.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
We established and validated a prognostic model that can provide individual prediction of short-term prognosis after first-line immunotherapy for patients with anti-NMDAR encephalitis. This practical prognostic model may help neurologists to predict the short-term prognosis early and potentially assist in adjusting appropriate treatment timely.
Identifiants
pubmed: 39123191
doi: 10.1186/s12883-024-03724-x
pii: 10.1186/s12883-024-03724-x
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Multicenter Study
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
276Subventions
Organisme : National Natural Science Foundation of China
ID : 82171349
Organisme : National Natural Science Foundation of China
ID : 82271384
Organisme : Capital Health Research and Development of Special Fund
ID : 2020-2-2056
Organisme : Key Projects of Medical Development in Capital
ID : 2014-1-1101
Informations de copyright
© 2024. The Author(s).
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