Ebola virus disease mathematical models and epidemiological parameters: a systematic review.

Ebola virus disease poses a recurring risk to human health. We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of Ebola virus disease transmission models and parameters published from database inception to July 7, 2023, from PubMed and Web of Science. Two people screened each abstract and full text. Papers were extracted with a bespoke Access database, 10% were double extracted. We extracted 1280 parameters and 295 models from 522 papers. Basic reproduction number estimates were highly variable, as were effective reproduction numbers, likely reflecting spatiotemporal variability in interventions. Random-effect estimates were 15·4 days (95% CI 13·2-17·5) for the serial interval, 8·5 days (7·7-9·2) for the incubation period, 9·3 days (8·5-10·1) for the symptom-onset-to-death delay, and 13·0 days (10·4-15·7) for symptom-onset-to-recovery. Common effect estimates were similar, albeit with narrower CIs. Case-fatality ratio estimates were generally high but highly variable, which could reflect heterogeneity in underlying risk factors. Although a substantial body of literature exists on Ebola virus disease models and epidemiological parameter estimates, many of these studies focus on the west African Ebola epidemic and are primarily associated with Zaire Ebola virus, which leaves a key gap in our knowledge regarding other Ebola virus species and outbreak contexts.

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Declaration of interests AC reports payment from Pfizer for teaching mathematical modelling of infectious diseases. PD reports payment from WHO for consulting on integrated modelling. AC was supported by the Academy of Medical Sciences Springboard scheme (reference SBF005\1044). CM acknowledges the Schmidt Foundation for research funding (grant code 6–22–63345). PD and TN received funding from Community Jameel. DJ has received funding from the Wellcome Trust and Royal Society (216427/Z/19/Z) and PhD funding from Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. GC-D has received funding from the Royal Society. RM has received funding from the National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, a partnership between the UK Health Security Agency, University of Oxford, University of Liverpool, and Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine (grant code NIHR200907). JW has received research funding from the Wellcome Trust (grant 102169/Z/13/Z). RKN and DN have received research funding from the Medical Research Council Doctoral Training Partnership (grant MR/N014103/1). KM acknowledges research funding from the Imperial College President's PhD Scholarship. AF acknowledges funding from the commonwealth scholarship commission. KF acknowledges funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Gavi, and the Wellcome Trust. HJTU has received funding from the Moderna Charitable Foundation. All other authors declare no competing interests.