Defining the analytical complexity of decision problems under uncertainty based on their pivotal properties.

Complexity Decision theory Heuristics Optimization Probabilistic risk assessment Radical uncertainty Risk management satisficing

Résumé

Uncertainty poses a pervasive challenge in decision analysis and risk management. When the problem is poorly understood, probabilistic estimation exhibits high variability and bias. Analysts then utilize various strategies to find satisficing solutions, and these strategies can sometimes adequately address even highly complex problems. Previous literature proposed a hierarchy of uncertainty, but did not develop a quantitative score of analytical complexity. In order to develop such a score, this study reviewed over 90 strategies to cope with uncertainty, including methods utilized by expert decision-makers such as engineers, military planners and others. It found that many decision problems have pivotal properties that enable their solution despite uncertainty, including small action space, reversibility and others. The analytical complexity score of a problem could then be defined based on the availability of these properties.

Sections du résumé

Background UNASSIGNED

Uncertainty poses a pervasive challenge in decision analysis and risk management. When the problem is poorly understood, probabilistic estimation exhibits high variability and bias. Analysts then utilize various strategies to find satisficing solutions, and these strategies can sometimes adequately address even highly complex problems. Previous literature proposed a hierarchy of uncertainty, but did not develop a quantitative score of analytical complexity.

Methods UNASSIGNED

In order to develop such a score, this study reviewed over 90 strategies to cope with uncertainty, including methods utilized by expert decision-makers such as engineers, military planners and others.

Results UNASSIGNED

It found that many decision problems have pivotal properties that enable their solution despite uncertainty, including small action space, reversibility and others. The analytical complexity score of a problem could then be defined based on the availability of these properties.

Identifiants

DOI: 10.7717/peerj-cs.2195 PMID: 39145227 PMC: PMC11323092

pubmed: 39145227

doi: 10.7717/peerj-cs.2195

pii: cs-2195

pmc: PMC11323092

doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Pagination

e2195

Informations de copyright

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

The author is an employee of Amazon Web Services, however the study is not related to his employment and any positions in this study are his own.

Defining the analytical complexity of decision problems under uncertainty based on their pivotal properties.

Journal

Informations de publication