Enhancing disease surveillance and preparedness: An early warning tool for disease occurrence in U.S. swine breeding herds.

Understanding regional disease risk is critical for swine disease prevention and control. Since 2011, the Morrison Swine Health Monitoring Project (MSHMP) has strengthened partnerships among practitioners and producers to report health events (e.g., porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus outbreaks) at the U.S. national level. Using MSHMP data and PRRS as an example, an early regional occurrence warning tool to provide near-real-time alerts was developed. MSHMP-participating production systems were invited to enroll. An algorithm was developed to calculate the number of PRRSV-positive sites near each enrolled site, determined from site-specific radius. The radius was determined in three steps. First, an initial radius of 25 miles was set for sites in pig-dense states and 50 miles for others. Secondly, four variables were generated to account for the sites within the initial radius: A) Total number of PRRSV-positive sites; B) Number of PRRSV-positive sites from other production systems; C) Total number of sites enrolled, and D) Total number of sites monitored by MSHMP. Subsequently, the reporting radius was automatically increased when confidentiality concerns arose. Results were compiled into system-specific reports and shared weekly with each participant. Reports have been shared since May 9, 2023, representing 178 breeding sites, comprising approximately 565 K sows. Examples of how participants use these reports include adjusting biosecurity programs, frequency of supply introduction, and transportation routes. The early occurrence warning tool developed in this study enhances producers' ability to communicate effectively and respond quickly to health threats, mitigating regional disease while preparing for foreign disease introductions.

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Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.