Evaluation of risk prediction models to select lung cancer screening participants in Europe: a prospective cohort consortium analysis.
Journal
The Lancet. Digital health
ISSN: 2589-7500
Titre abrégé: Lancet Digit Health
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101751302
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Sep 2024
Sep 2024
Historique:
received:
09
08
2023
revised:
08
03
2024
accepted:
06
06
2024
medline:
24
8
2024
pubmed:
24
8
2024
entrez:
23
8
2024
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Lung cancer risk prediction models might efficiently identify individuals who should be offered lung cancer screening. However, their performance has not been comprehensively evaluated in Europe. We aimed to externally validate and evaluate the performance of several risk prediction models that predict lung cancer incidence or mortality in prospective European cohorts. We analysed 240 137 participants aged 45-80 years with a current or former smoking history from nine European countries in four prospective cohorts from the pooled database of the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium: the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study (Finland), the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (Norway), CONSTANCES (France), and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (Denmark, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Norway). We evaluated ten lung cancer risk models, which comprised the Bach, the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial 2012 model (PLCO Among the participants, 1734 lung cancer cases and 1072 lung cancer deaths occurred within five years of enrolment. Most models had reasonable calibration in most countries, although the LLP version 2 overpredicted risk by more than 50% in eight countries (expected to observed ≥1·50). The PLCO Several lung cancer risk prediction models showed good performance in European countries and might improve the efficiency of lung cancer screening if used in place of categorical eligibility criteria. US National Cancer Institute, l'Institut National du Cancer, Cancer Research UK.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Lung cancer risk prediction models might efficiently identify individuals who should be offered lung cancer screening. However, their performance has not been comprehensively evaluated in Europe. We aimed to externally validate and evaluate the performance of several risk prediction models that predict lung cancer incidence or mortality in prospective European cohorts.
METHODS
METHODS
We analysed 240 137 participants aged 45-80 years with a current or former smoking history from nine European countries in four prospective cohorts from the pooled database of the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium: the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study (Finland), the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (Norway), CONSTANCES (France), and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (Denmark, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Norway). We evaluated ten lung cancer risk models, which comprised the Bach, the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial 2012 model (PLCO
FINDINGS
RESULTS
Among the participants, 1734 lung cancer cases and 1072 lung cancer deaths occurred within five years of enrolment. Most models had reasonable calibration in most countries, although the LLP version 2 overpredicted risk by more than 50% in eight countries (expected to observed ≥1·50). The PLCO
INTERPRETATION
CONCLUSIONS
Several lung cancer risk prediction models showed good performance in European countries and might improve the efficiency of lung cancer screening if used in place of categorical eligibility criteria.
FUNDING
BACKGROUND
US National Cancer Institute, l'Institut National du Cancer, Cancer Research UK.
Identifiants
pubmed: 39179310
pii: S2589-7500(24)00123-7
doi: 10.1016/S2589-7500(24)00123-7
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e614-e624Informations de copyright
This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY NC ND 3.0 IGO license which permits users to download and share the article for non-commercial purposes, so long as the article is reproduced in the whole without changes, and provided the original source is properly cited. This article shall not be used or reproduced in association with the promotion of commercial products, services or any entity. There should be no suggestion that WHO endorses any specific organisation, products or services. The use of the WHO logo is not permitted. This notice should be preserved along with the article's original URL.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests. Where authors are identified as personnel of the International Agency for Research on Cancer or WHO, the authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this Article and they do not necessarily represent the decisions, policy, or views of those organisations.