Predicting population-level impacts of projected climate heating on a temperate freshwater fish.
IPCC
agent‐based modeling
bioenergetics
metabolic theory
three‐spined stickleback
trophic interactions
Journal
Journal of fish biology
ISSN: 1095-8649
Titre abrégé: J Fish Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 0214055
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
28 Aug 2024
28 Aug 2024
Historique:
revised:
26
06
2024
received:
10
11
2023
accepted:
14
07
2024
medline:
28
8
2024
pubmed:
28
8
2024
entrez:
28
8
2024
Statut:
aheadofprint
Résumé
Climate heating has the potential to drive changes in ecosystems at multiple levels of biological organization. Temperature directly affects the inherent physiology of plants and animals, resulting in changes in rates of photosynthesis and respiration, and trophic interactions. Predicting temperature-dependent changes in physiological and trophic processes, however, is challenging because environmental conditions and ecosystem structure vary across biogeographical regions of the globe. To realistically predict the effects of projected climate heating on wildlife populations, mechanistic tools are required to incorporate the inherent physiological effects of temperature changes, as well as the associated effects on food availability within and across comparable ecosystems. Here we applied an agent-based bioenergetics model to explore the combined effects of projected temperature increases for 2100 (1.4, 2.7, and 4.4°C), and associated changes in prey availability, on three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) populations representing latitudes 50, 55, and 60°N. Our results showed a decline in population density after a simulated 1.4°C temperature increase at 50°N. In all other modeled scenarios there was an increase (inflation) in population density and biomass (per unit area) with climate heating, and this inflation increased with increasing latitude. We conclude that agent-based bioenergetics models are valuable tools in discerning the impacts of climate change on wild fish populations, which play important roles in aquatic food webs.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Informations de copyright
© 2024 The Author(s). Journal of Fish Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Fisheries Society of the British Isles.
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