A thirty-year time series analyses identifies coherence between oscillations in Anthrax outbreaks and El Niño in Karnataka, India.
Journal
Scientific reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
Titre abrégé: Sci Rep
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101563288
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
27 08 2024
27 08 2024
Historique:
received:
04
11
2023
accepted:
15
07
2024
medline:
31
8
2024
pubmed:
31
8
2024
entrez:
28
8
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Anthrax is an economically important zoonotic disease affecting both livestock and humans. The disease is caused by a spore forming bacterium, Bacillus anthracis, and is considered endemic to the state of Karnataka, India. It is critical to quantify the role of climatic factors in determining the temporal pattern of anthrax outbreaks, so that reliable forecasting models can be developed. These models will aid in establishing public health surveillance and guide strategic vaccination programs, which will reduce the economic loss to farmers, and prevent the spill-over of anthrax from livestock to humans. In this study, correlation and coherence between time series of anthrax outbreaks in livestock (1987-2016) and meteorological variables and Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SST) were identified using a combination of cross-correlation analyses, spectral analyses (wavelets and empirical mode decomposition) and further quantified using a Bayesian time series regression model accounting for temporal autocorrelation. Monthly numbers of anthrax outbreaks were positively associated with a lagged effect of rainfall and wet day frequency. Long-term periodicity in anthrax outbreaks (approximately 6-8 years) was coherent with the periodicity in SST anomalies and outbreak numbers increased with decrease in SST anomalies. These findings will be useful in planning long-term anthrax prevention and control strategies in Karnataka state of India.
Identifiants
pubmed: 39198489
doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-67736-w
pii: 10.1038/s41598-024-67736-w
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
19928Informations de copyright
© 2024. The Author(s).
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